In April 1963, about six months after the 1962 war with China, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru wrote an article in Foreign Affairs magazine, titled “Changing India.” He admitted that it was necessary to “adjust our relations with friendly countries in light of the changing realities of the international situation … the Chinese, ‘devious and deceptive’ as they have proven themselves, demanded that India pay ‘considerably more attention to strengthening its armed forces ‘”. This task would require “outside help to an appropriate extent,” he wrote.
As India bids farewell to a disruptive year that challenged its diplomatic and military position, and enters a new one fraught with challenges, it could borrow Nehru’s words.
A reflection of events shows that India faced seven harsh realities in 2020 and has to deal with six challenges and opportunities in 2021.
Harsh Realities: 2020
# 1: China aims for the top
According to the Chinese zodiac, 2020 was the year of the rat. According to legend, in a competition organized by the Jade Emperor to decide the animals of the zodiac, the ingenious Rat asked the Ox to carry him across the river and jumped before the Ox crossed the finish line, so the Rat became the first of the animals of the zodiac.
In 2020, Beijing tried to behave like the proverbial Rat. A country that, under President Xi Jinping since 2013, had been consolidating its global influence, saw an opportunity in a world distracted by the pandemic.
While initially targeted as the source of the coronavirus, the Xi regime turned around and began to show its strength in the region. The Indo-Pacific was his playground, where Chinese military or naval forces rammed a Vietnamese fishing boat, “buzzed” a Philippine naval vessel and harassed an oil drilling operation in Malaysia. It even tried to twist Australia’s arm through trade restrictions.
And since May, Chinese troops have disrupted the status quo along the border with India, taking the lives of 20 Indian soldiers and violating all peacekeeping agreements.
So even though he got infected with the virus first, he claimed to be the first to get over it and recover, just like the proverbial Rat.
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# 2: ‘Trump’s Americans’
For the past four years, the United States vacated the leadership space on the world stage under the Donald Trump Administration. Nearly a dozen multilateral agencies or agreements were alienated or weakened, from the Iran deal to the WHO. As Beijing moved to reclaim space, the Trump Administration did one thing right: It targeted China and the Communist Party of China for disrupting the global order.
Once Joe Biden takes office as president, the United States is expected to regain the space left by Trump. But, as former Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale has pointed out, the United States will be defined by “Trump’s Americans.” Going forward, America will not be defined by Democrats or Republicans. It will be defined by Trump’s Americans … Beyond optics, Trump’s Americans, who are the new political base, will continue to shape American politics regardless of who the president is, ”he wrote in The Indian Express on 5 of November.
# 3: Acceptance of the Taliban
Having invaded Afghanistan 19 years ago trying to eradicate the Taliban, the United States finally made peace with them in February while seeking to get out. For India, this marked the beginning of the process of reengaging with the Taliban, and New Delhi reached out with the assistance of Foreign Minister S Jaishankar via virtual mode and a senior Indian diplomat in Doha.
As a sign of a long-term commitment to the future of Afghanistan, under the Taliban or other political forces, India has committed $ 80 million, up from its commitment of $ 3 billion in the past two decades. This means that New Delhi is also finally considering the Taliban as a political actor, although it is controlled by the Pakistani military.
# 4: Middle Eastern equations
The US-negotiated rapprochement between Israel and four Arab countries (the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan) reflected the changing landscape in the region. With Saudi Arabia and Iran vying for leadership, alongside Turkey, in the Islamic world, there have been growing calls for ties with Israel.
New Delhi has been ahead of the curve, cultivating ties with Israel as well as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and the Iranians with skillful diplomacy. But you need to be careful not to allow your earnings to be affected by political polarization at home, whether through the CAA-NRC or religious failures.
# 5: Russia-China Union
For the past three decades, ties between Russia and China grew closer in 2020. India has always felt it was the West, with its focus on Russia after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, which has pushed Moscow into a closer embrace. from Beijing. This has also been possible due to the anti-Chinese rhetoric of the United States, the collapse of oil prices and Russia’s dependence on Chinese consumption.
India has strong ties to Russia, and Moscow was the site of all official and ministerial talks between India and China on the border clash. But it has taken note of Moscow’s position in the Quad and the Indo-Pacific, almost an echo of Beijing’s position.
# 6: assertive neighbors
The year began when Bangladesh asserted itself to CAA-NRC, and then Nepal claimed territory and issued a new map. It brought home the reality that neighbors are not easy prey. By year’s end, New Delhi had moved to build bridges with both, distrusting an active Beijing. Bangladesh fell back and India did not notify the CAA rules. Nepal approached the highest level.
India also closely watched the US and Chinese incursions into the Maldives and Sri Lanka. India appears to have made peace with the United States participating in the Maldives and Japan in Sri Lanka and the Maldives.
# 7: aspirational India
Throughout 2020, India’s public articulation of “self-reliance” and its refusal to sign trade pacts with the RCEP countries was perceived as “isolationist” and “introspective”. India took a step forward to supply medicines and protection kits to more than 150 countries, but it did not show itself as the global leader that the world needed right now. Lack of resources, a contracting economy and its populist politics made it appear as an aspirational powerhouse.
2021: challenges, opportunities
# 1: Counter China
India’s response to the border confrontation has been guided by the thought that one has to face the bully, but that has come at a cost: soldiers braving the harsh winter and military assets deployed on land, air and sea. The confrontation has reinforced Nehru’s belief in 1963 that India needs “outside help in the right measure.” India will need the continued support of the US, Japan, Australia, as well as European leaders such as France, Germany and the UK.
# 2: High table at the UN
With India entering the UN Security Council as a non-permanent member for the eighth time, the stakes are high in the wake of this leadership competition between China and the rest of the world. India will have to take positions on issues it had carefully avoided, from Tibet to Taiwan, from the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia to the refugee crisis between Bangladesh and Myanmar. While cross-border terrorism is a top concern and India will work to further isolate Pakistan, a limited fixation on its western neighbor would distract from India’s aspirations to be a world leader.
# 3: friendship with us
Much is expected of the Biden Administration to build on Indo-US ties, but much will depend on how the US views China in the larger scheme of things. South Block will closely monitor movements toward a potential US-China trade deal. One of the key tests will be the future of Quad and the Indo-Pacific strategy of the new administration.
New Delhi will build on its deepening defense and strategic ties with the United States and would like to resolve visa and trade issues.
# 4: courting Europe
As the UK and the EU agree to a deal, India will hope to negotiate a deal with the UK and a pending one with the EU. For starters, he has invited British Prime Minister Boris Johnson as the main guest on Republic Day. In May, there is the possibility of an India-EU summit. France and Germany have already devised their Indo-Pacific strategy, and a possible European strategy is a possibility, but Indian negotiators would discuss an EU-China trade deal.
# 5: commitment to neighbors
China’s growing economic footprint in the Indian neighborhood is a concern. While playing in Nepal, India will also watch China’s movements in the rest of the subcontinent. His movements in Iran were also closely followed, and as the presidential elections take place in Iran this year, the stakes will be high.
One of the important aspects of 2021 is that while there is turmoil in Nepal, almost every country in South Asia has had elections in recent years. That means that the governments of these countries are stable.
As the world emerges from the pandemic, New Delhi has much to gain from what could be “vaccine diplomacy” with its neighbors in 2021: the provision of vaccines, either free or at affordable prices.
# 6: global, not just aspirational
For a long time, India has played the role of an emerging power, with the ambition to play the role of a world power. In 2021, New Delhi will host the BRICS summit and begin its preparations for the G20 summit in 2023. And the India-Africa Forum summit, which could not be held in 2020, could be held in 2021 or later. New Delhi has opportunities to speak out and express yourself on issues that are important to the world, and be proactive in promoting your interests.
As India looks to the future in 2021, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar may have taken a sheet from Nehru’s playbook. In his book The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World, he sums up India’s foreign policy goals in this age of disruption: “Many friends, few enemies, great goodwill, more influence. That must be achieved through the Way of India. “
In the Chinese zodiac, 2021 is the Year of the Ox, considered productive for those who are “hard-working and methodical” and “fully feel the weight of their responsibilities.” It is “a year in which it is necessary to redouble efforts to achieve anything.”
That could well be India’s strategy in the new year, as it navigates a post-Covid-19 future.
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