The Union Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has documented an increase in severe cyclone formation in the northern Indian Ocean, including the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, and an increase in extremely heavy rains. , which measure more than 20 centimeters (20 cm), in the last three years.
Although the frequency of severe cyclones has increased, the loss of life has dropped to double digits since 2013 due to a better forecast, the MoES in Rajya Sabha said in response to a question on Wednesday.
On average, five cyclones developed in the northern Indian Ocean between 1891 and 2017.
But in 2018 and 2019, seven and eight cyclones were recorded, respectively.
Last year, five cyclones had developed over the Arabian Sea. The normal is one cyclone per year since 1902, the ministry said.
More intense cyclones were reported over the Arabian Sea last year, according to the MoES. In 2018, out of seven cyclones, six were of great intensity; while last year’s eight, seven were serious.
“The country has witnessed heavy to very heavy rain activity that has led to flood scenarios in the recent past,” the note says. He added that last year 554 meteorological stations reported extremely heavy rains, of more than 20 cm, and mentioned that of 4,000 meteorological stations, 3,056 reported very heavy rains.
The numbers were lower in 2018 and 2017, according to the MoES note.
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In 2017, 261 stations had experienced extremely heavy rains and 1,824 stations had experienced very heavy rains. “There is an increasing trend in cases of heavy and extremely heavy rains, which I have also said in the past. But no conclusions can be drawn from the three-year data. This has been going on for some time. It does not mean that each year the cases of heavy or extremely heavy rains are higher than the previous year, ”said Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).
In response to a question about several low-magnitude earthquakes in recent months, the MoES stated that the National Center for Seismology (NCS) has recorded 413 tremors between March 1 and September 8. Of 413 tremors, 11 were between 5 and 5.7 magnitude on the Richter scale, while 135 were less than 3.
The ministry has said there are no plans to establish more cyclone warning centers as the requirements of the entire coastal belt of the country are covered.
“IMD has demonstrated its ability to provide highly accurate cyclone early warning and has won accolades globally and nationally for its highly effective and state-of-the-art early warning system for cyclone monitoring and prediction. The accuracy of cyclone forecasting has improved significantly in recent years, as demonstrated by cyclones Phailin (2013), Hudhud (2014), Vardah (2016), Titli (2018), Fani and Bulbul (2019) and Amphan & Nisarga (2020). Because of this, in recent years, the loss of life has been drastically reduced, limiting itself to only double-digit figures, ”he said.
According to the “Climate Change Assessment in the Indian Region”, a MoES report published earlier this year, from 1950 onwards there has been a significant upward trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme heavy rain events in the center India along with a trend decline in moderate rainfall events.
A study published in the journal Nature in 2017 by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) has concluded that extreme rains tripled on the west coast and central India between 1950 and 2015.
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