A 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers is eroding and efforts to revive the pact face a new challenge with the assassination of Tehran’s top nuclear scientist.
The agreement’s restrictions on Iran’s atomic work had one goal: to extend the “time to break” for Tehran to produce enough fissile material for a bomb, should it decide to make one, to at least a year from about two to three months.
Iran maintains that it has never sought nuclear weapons and never would. He says his nuclear work is for civilian purposes only.
Tehran began violating the agreement’s restrictions last year in a step-by-step response to President Donald Trump’s withdrawal of the agreement in May 2018 and the reimposition of US sanctions.
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This has shortened the time to break, but reports from the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which monitors the deal, indicate that Iran is not moving forward with its nuclear work as quickly as it could.
European states have tried to salvage the nuclear deal, pressuring Tehran to comply even as Washington has tightened sanctions and holding out hopes for a change in American policy once President-elect Joe Biden takes office on January 20. .
Biden was part of the US administration under Barack Obama that negotiated the 2015 deal.
What has Iran done so far?
Ran has violated many of the agreement’s restrictions, but continues to cooperate with the IAEA and grant access to inspectors under one of the most intrusive nuclear verification regimes imposed on any nation.
Enriched Uranium: The agreement limits Iran’s enriched uranium reserves to 202.8 kg, a fraction of the more than eight tons it held before the agreement. The limit was exceeded last year. The November IAEA report put stocks at 2,442.9 kg.
* Enrichment level: The agreement limits the fissile purity at which Iran can refine uranium to 3.67%, well below the 20% achieved before the agreement and below the 90% weapons grade level. Iran broke the 3.67% limit in July 2019 and the enrichment level has remained stable at 4.5% since then.
Centrifuges: The deal allows Iran to produce enriched uranium using around 5,000 first-generation IR-1 centrifuges at its underground Natanz plant, which was built to house more than 50,000. It can operate a small number of more advanced models above ground without accumulating enriched uranium. Iran had approximately 19,000 centrifuges installed before the deal.
In 2019, the IAEA said Iran had started enriching itself with advanced centrifuges at an above-ground pilot plant in Natanz. Since then, Iran has started moving three waterfalls or groups of advanced centrifuges to the underground plant. In November, the IAEA said Iran had introduced uranium hexafluoride gas as a feedstock in the first of those underground waterfalls.
* Fordow – The agreement prohibits enrichment at Fordow, a site that Iran secretly built inside a mountain and was exposed by Western intelligence services in 2009. Centrifuges are allowed there for other purposes, such as producing stable isotopes. Iran now has 1,044 IR-1 centrifuges that enrich themselves there.
How close is Iran to having a bomb?
Violations lengthened the time to break, but estimates still vary. Many diplomats and nuclear experts say the one-year starting point is conservative and Iran would need more time.
David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector who tends to take a tough stance on Iran, estimated in November that Iran’s flight time could be “as short as 3.5 months,” though this assumes Iran would use 1,000 advanced centrifuges that were retired under the agreement. .
What else would Iran have to do?
If Iran accumulated enough fissile material, it would need to assemble a bomb and probably one small enough to be carried by its ballistic missiles. It’s unclear how long exactly it would take, but accumulating enough fissile material is widely considered the biggest obstacle to producing a weapon.
US intelligence agencies and the IAEA believe that Iran once had a nuclear weapons program that it halted. There is evidence to suggest that Iran obtained a design for a nuclear weapon and carried out various relevant types of work to manufacture one.
Tehran continues to grant the IAEA access to its declared nuclear facilities and allows speedy inspections elsewhere.
Iran and the IAEA resolved a confrontation this year that had lasted for several months over access to two alleged old sites.
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