Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said the incoming Biden administration should act quickly to restore lines of communication with China that deteriorated during the Trump years or risk a crisis that could escalate into a military conflict.
“Unless there is some basis for some cooperative action, the world will slide into a catastrophe comparable to World War I,” Kissinger said during the opening session of the Bloomberg New Economy Forum. He said that the military technologies available today would make such a crisis “even more difficult to control” than those of earlier times.
“The United States and China are now moving increasingly toward confrontation, and they are conducting their diplomacy in a confrontational manner,” Kissinger, 97, said in an interview with Bloomberg News editor-in-chief John Micklethwait. “The danger is that some crisis occurs that goes beyond rhetoric and turns into a real military conflict.”
The diplomat who paved the way for President Richard Nixon’s historic 1972 trip to China said he hoped the shared threat from the Covid-19 pandemic would provide an opening for political discussions between the two countries when Biden takes office on 20. January.
“If Covid can be seen as a warning, in the sense that, in practice, each country treats it largely autonomously, but its long-term solution has to be global,” Kissinger said, “it should be dealt with as a lesson “.
Relations between the United States and China are at their lowest level in decades, despite the two sides reaching a “phase one” trade deal earlier in the year. Since then, the virus outbreak that began in Wuhan, China, has gone global, killing more than 1.3 million people and crushing economies around the world.
As President Donald Trump stepped up his criticism of China, blaming it for the spread of the virus and the death toll in the US, each side has also stepped up movements that the other considers hostile.
Last week, China’s crackdown on Hong Kong’s autonomy continued, as officials disqualified lawmakers deemed insufficiently loyal to Beijing. US officials have mourned the death of the “one country, two systems” policy that has helped Beijing navigate its ties with the West for a generation.
The United States continued its criticism by imposing new sanctions and banning investments in 31 Chinese companies that it says are controlled by the country’s People’s Liberation Army.
“Trump has a more contentious negotiating method than he can apply indefinitely,” Kissinger said. At the beginning of Trump’s term, “it was important for him to emphasize the deep concerns that Americans have about the evolution of the world economy that is not balanced. I think it was important to emphasize that. But since then, I would have preferred a more differentiated approach. “
The rapid erosion of ties this year means that China and the United States are moving toward a new Cold War, Kissinger said, adding that the two sides should “agree that whatever other conflict they have, they will not resort to military conflict.”
To achieve that, the United States and China must jointly create “an institutional system whereby some leader our President trusts and some Chinese leader President Xi trusts are appointed to stay in contact with each other on behalf of their presidents. “, said.
Relations with China may dominate the foreign policy agenda of the administration of President-elect Joe Biden. It is expected to seek ways to ease tensions in areas including the future of 5G technology, China’s expansionism in the South China Sea, and Hong Kong’s declining autonomy.
While Biden has decades of experience dealing with China, his tone took a harsher turn during the presidential primaries. He frequently criticized China’s assertive policies in his region, as well as Beijing’s human rights record, even calling President Xi Jinping a “bully” during a debate in February.
“Of course, there are differences on the issue of human rights,” Kissinger said when asked what else China could do to improve relations. “It is important that each party understands the other’s sensitivities, and not necessarily to solve the problem, but to alleviate it to a point where further progress is possible.”
Xi used a speech last week to call on countries to strengthen cooperation and avoid conflict, even as his policies put China on a collision course with the United States and China last week he congratulated Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris on his electoral victory.
“The United States and China have never faced countries of a magnitude that is roughly equal to each other,” Kissinger said. “This is the first experience. And we must prevent it from becoming a conflict and hopefully lead to some cooperative efforts. “
Reviewing some of Biden’s proposals to address China, Kissinger urged caution when asked about the idea of building a coalition of democracies to confront Beijing.
Crisis history
“I believe that democracies should cooperate where their convictions allow or dictate it,” he added. “I think that a coalition directed at a particular country is not wise, but a coalition to prevent dangers is necessary when the occasion calls for it.”
Ultimately, Kissinger said, the leaders of the two nations must recognize that they view the same issues very differently, and that influences their approach to the talks.
“Americans have had a relatively unbroken track record of success,” he said. “The Chinese have had a long history of repeated crises. America has been fortunate to be free from immediate danger. The Chinese have generally been surrounded by countries that had plans for unity. “
Europe will increasingly be caught in a tug of war between the United States and Eurasia, Kissinger added.
“Europe has been an anchor for American foreign policy throughout the post-World War II period,” he said. “The question for them now is whether, in the evolution of relations with other parts of the world, they will try to play a totally autonomous role.”
The New Economy Forum is organized by Bloomberg Media Group, a division of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News. Other guests include Microsoft Corp. co-founder Bill Gates, Stephen Schwarzman, president, co-founder, and CEO of Blackstone Group Inc., and Chris Kempczinski, president and CEO of McDonald’s Corporation.
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