However, the worrying part for the BJP is that while it may have made minor inroads into Kashmir, its dominance in Jammu appears to have weakened somewhat.
In 2014, it won 25 of the 37 seats in Jammu, that is, more than two-thirds. But in DDC polls, he won 71 of 140 seats, which is just over 50%.
In particular, the BJP appears to have lost some ground in districts such as Doda, Ramban and Rajauri. In Assembly polls, the BJP had won both seats in Doda, but in DDC polls, it won 8 of 14 seats. In Ramban it had won 1 out of 2 in 2014, but in DDC polls it had to settle for 3 out of 14. Then, in Rajauri, the BJP had won 2 out of 5 seats in Assembly polls, but now it’s down to 2 of 13.
The BJP can take comfort in the fact that its main competitor in these areas, Congress, was eliminated in these four districts and the only resistance came from the NC and the Panthers Party, which each won two seats.
The BJP won three seats in the Kashmir region: Tulail in Bandipora district, Khonmoh II in Srinagar, and Kakapora II in Pulwama.
But the party was unable to make further progress despite controlling power both in the Center and in Jammu and Kashmir.
The election exposed what has been a weakness for the BJP at the national level: that its electoral success runs amok in areas where Hindus are not an overwhelming majority.
Win for PAGD but with riders
The BJP may not have anticipated that the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference and the Jammu and Kashmir People’s Democratic Party would form an alliance, but the leaders of the two parties – Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah of the NC and Mehbooba Mufti of the PDP – were the same. mature enough to put their rivalry aside and take on the BJP.
However, there are important nuances within the PAGD.
NC Advantage
To a large extent, the PAGD victory has been made possible by the resistance of JKNC at the grassroots level. He won 67 seats and is in a position to control the Badgam and Ganderbal councils on his own. More important is the fact that NC emerged even as the main opposition party in Jammu, winning 25 seats in the region. He did particularly well in Kishtwar and Ramban, winning 6 seats each and 5 in Rajauri. It had been eliminated in these three districts in the 2014 Assembly elections.
The poor performance of the BJP in these districts is due in part to a surprisingly strong performance by the NC.
PDP rejection?
The PDP may have won fewer seats than the NC, but that is also due to the fact that it contested fewer seats. The NC contested 168 seats and won 67, while the PDP won 27 of 68, both with a strike rate close to 40 percent. However, NC’s performance is more creditable, as it contested a much larger number of seats in Jammu than PDP.
The PPD, contending for fewer seats, even in Kashmir, may be the result of weakening the strength of its cadre. It never had the kind of cadre base that the NC enjoyed, mainly because of the land reforms the NC carried out decades ago.
During the DDC elections, the PDP was the recipient of hostility from the authorities more than its own partners. For example, its leader Waheed Parra, also a Pulwama DDC candidate, has been arrested under the UAPA. Parra won the elections by just under 1,000 votes.
Then, a day before the results, the police arrested the main leaders of the PDP, Naeem Akhtar and Mansoor Hussain.
The PDP is likely to continue to face this hostility in the near future. This would put Mehbooba Mufti in a difficult position. Ideally, she would want to take a more aggressive position as she used to before, but that in all likelihood would provoke the wrath of the Center. So the choice is between playing it safe and risking further political decline or taking a stronger position only to face repression.
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