Delhi and Haryana have already been in the midst of a resurgence of the infection this month. The growing list of such states raises fears that the week of Diwali in mid-November has undone some of the gains made so far.
Winter could be a major factor, especially in the northern and central belts. Punjab and Himachal Pradesh also report a rapidly increasing number of cases.
Rajasthan added the most active cases last week – 6,842 of them. This is a 26% jump, based on seven-day moving averages. Madhya Pradesh added 4,404 active cases (30% increase) and Gujarat added 1,830 (9% increase). These three states were COVID-19 hotspots early in the pandemic, but had been able to control the spread since then.
Active cases refer to the number of infected people who have not yet tested negative. Most states had been reporting a decline in this count since late September, easing pressure on healthcare systems. But a change in this trend means that new patients again outnumber those who are recovering.
This has prompted the governments of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Punjab to re-impose night curfews in some districts.
Maharashtra has made it mandatory for travelers from four states to carry negative test reports for COVID.
Meanwhile, the third wave in Delhi continues to claim more daily lives than ever in the pandemic. Almost 21% of the 3,643 deaths registered in the country since last Thursday were in the national capital. The city’s toll increased 10% in one week, the fastest among the major states and territories in the Union.
Kerala and Haryana were next, with a 9.5% weekly jump and 8% in their tolls. With this, India’s death count has reached 135,223 on Thursday, an increase of 3% from last week.
Delhi also accounted for the largest share (14%) of all new cases reported this week. Kerala and Maharashtra followed, with a 13% share each. West Bengal, where the outbreak has subsided since the peak of Durga Puja, continues to report more than 25,000 cases per week, or 4% of all cases. Overall, India reported 304,895 new cases last week, bringing the count to 9,266,705.
All weekly trends are based on seven-day moving averages to minimize the effect of volatile and lagging reports. National and state data come from the Union Ministry of Health.
Among the 324 districts with more than 5,000 confirmed cases so far, those with the worst spikes in infections in the past seven days were Shimla (27%) and Mandi (17%) in Himachal Pradesh, and Faridabad (14%) in Haryana . displays data from howindialives.com. After dominating the list for weeks, Kerala now only has one district, Idukki, in the top 10.
Deaths increased the most in Sundargarh (30%) in Odisha, and Shimla (23%) and Kangra (20%) in Himachal Pradesh. Data by district does not include Delhi.
Over the past fortnight, the positivity rate has increased in Delhi, Kerala, West Bengal, Haryana and Rajasthan, data from covid19india.org showed. The high tests show that Delhi and Kerala are making efforts to find the infected, but an increase in positivity shows that even that may not be enough.
Rajasthan and West Bengal have the lowest test rates. With the outbreak intensifying in Rajasthan, the state will need to test more people to control the spread.
Globally, the United States reported the highest proportion (30%) of new coronavirus cases during the past week, followed by India (7%) and Brazil (5%). India’s share marks a significant improvement over the past two months, reporting nearly a third of all daily cases in the world in September.
Among the new deaths reported last week, the US and India had a share of 16% and 5%, respectively. The global count of coronavirus cases has surpassed 60 million, including 1.4 million deaths, data from Johns Hopkins University showed.
The resurgence of coronavirus cases in new states is a reminder that controlling the virus once is not enough. In the past two months, festivals and winter have been the biggest obstacles to maintaining profits. After Durga Puja and Diwali, the next challenge for urban India will be Christmas at the peak of winter. A second wave cannot yet be ruled out.
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