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The number of coronavirus deaths may be almost 60% higher than reported in official counts, according to a FT analysis of general deaths during the pandemic in 14 countries.
Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels at these locations, considerably higher than the 77,000 official Covid-19 deaths reported for the same locations and time periods.
If the same level of underreporting observed in these countries occurred worldwide, the global number of Covid-19 deaths would increase from the current official total of 201,000 to 318,000.
To calculate excess deaths, the FT has compared deaths from all causes in the weeks of a location’s outbreak in March and April 2020 with the average for the same period between 2015 and 2019. The total of 122,000 equals one 50% increase in overall mortality relative to the historical average for the places studied.
In all the countries analyzed, except Denmark, the excess deaths far exceeded the official number of deaths from coronavirus. The accuracy of official statistics of death from the virus is limited by how effectively a country is evaluating people to confirm cases. Some countries, including China, have retrospectively revised their death quotas for the disease.
According to FT analysis, overall deaths increased by 60% in Belgium, by 51% in Spain, by 42% in the Netherlands and by 34% in France during the pandemic compared to the same period in previous years.
Some of these deaths may be the result of causes other than Covid-19, as people avoid hospitals for other ailments. But excess mortality has increased more sharply in places that suffer the worst Covid-19 outbreaks, suggesting that most of these deaths are directly related to the virus and not simply the side effects of blockages.
David Spiegelhalter, professor of public understanding of risk at Cambridge University, said the daily counts in the UK, for example, were “too low” because they only represented deaths in the hospital.
“The only unbiased comparison you can make between different countries is to look at mortality from any cause. . . There are so many questions about the increase in death that Covid hasn’t been listed on the death certificate, but he inevitably feels somehow related to this epidemic. “
Additional deaths are most pronounced in urban areas with the worst virus outbreaks, and in some have completely overwhelmed reporting mechanisms. This is of particular concern for many emerging economies, where excess total mortality is an order of magnitude greater than official coronavirus mortality.
In the Ecuadorian province of Guayas, only 245 official Covid-related deaths were reported between March 1 and April 15, but data on total deaths shows that about 10,200 more people died during this period than in a typical year. , an increase of 350 percent.
In the Lombardy region of northern Italy, the heart of Europe’s worst outbreak, there are more than 13,000 excess deaths in official statistics for the nearly 1,700 municipalities for which data is available. This is a 155 percent rebound in the historical average and much higher than the 4,348 Covid deaths reported in the region.
The region surrounding the Italian city of Bergamo recorded the worst international increase with a 464 percent increase in deaths above normal levels, followed by New York City with a 200 percent increase and Madrid, Spain, with an increase of 161 percent.
In the Indonesian capital Jakarta, burial data shows an increase of 1,400 from the historical average during the same period, 15 times the official figure of 90 Covid deaths during the same period.
A funeral worker observes how the body of an unidentified person who died of unknown causes is placed in a niche in the Girona cemetery, Spain © Felipe Dana / AP
The challenge is not limited to the developing world. In England and Wales, the death toll in the week ending April 10 was the highest in this century. The figure was 76% higher than the same week average over the past 5 years, and the number of excess deaths was 58% higher than the total number of Covid deaths reported for the same period.
“If we want. . .[understand]the ways in which different countries have responded to the growing pandemic and how [it] has affected the health of the population, the best way is to count excess deaths, “said David Leon, professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
Father Bruno Lefèvre Pontalis walks behind stick carriers carrying a coffin in front of empty benches in the nave of the Saint-François-Xavier church during the funeral of a coronavirus victim during the confinement in Paris, France © Nathan Laine / Bloomberg
Experts have warned about the lack of serious case reports of Covid-19 in residential facilities for the elderly, who are particularly vulnerable to the virus. “Very few countries seem to be evaluating people in care homes, staff and residents in a systematic way,” said Adelina Comas-Herrera, a researcher at the Center for Assessment and Care Policy at the London School of Economics.
Even the much higher numbers of pandemic deaths suggested by excess mortality statistics are likely to be conservative, as the blockades mean that “mortality from numerous conditions such as road accidents and occupational injuries possibly decreased,” said Markéta Pechholdová, assistant professor of demography. at the University of Economics, Prague.
