The cities of Mumbai, Pune, Chennai, Kolkata and Bengaluru may hold the key to how the pandemic is progressing, even as estimates from the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai show that India’s R-value marginally fell to 0.9 in the week that began. on September 19 from more than 1.1 in the previous week. While the five high-burden states of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh all recorded an R-value below 1 during September 19-22, the number has started to rise again in Maharashtra and Karnataka, says Sitabhra Sinha, a researcher at the Institute.
“Currently India is dependent on how Maharashtra does because the state accounts for a large number of active cases and therefore it is going to contribute to the national average. Of course it will also depend on the magnitude of R. But so far, Maharashtra continues to dominate the R value of India, ”says Sinha.
The R value is subject to interpretation, but is a useful measure of how quickly the disease is spreading.
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Sinha says that if India is able to keep the R value below 1 for a longer period of time, then the epidemic may start to subside.
But he points out that the national average may not be related solely to states that report large numbers of cases.
“The government should focus on containment measures in states that do not currently have a large number of active cases, but where the value of R is more than 1. Because a higher value of R means that these states can possibly replace the current high-load states and then impact the national average, ”Sinha said. This would mean that states with a low case load would start to register many more.
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Among the five highest burden states, Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh have an R-value below 1. Between September 18 and 21, Mumbai’s R-value fell below 1, but has risen again.
Similarly, the value has once again exceeded 1 in Chennai, Bengaluru and Kolkata. However, the latest trend of recoveries outpacing new cases has also raised hopes that if India is able to reduce the growth rate in active cases, the R-value.
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