Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to end military operations in and around Nagorno-Karabakh in a Russian-brokered ceasefire.
The story so far: After six weeks of fierce fighting, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to end military operations in and around Nagorno-Karabakh in a ceasefire negotiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin. An estimated 2,000 people, including combatants and civilians, died in the war. Armenian leader Nikol Pashinyan described the decision to accept the truce as “painful”, while Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, backed by Turkey, claimed victory. Russia, which has enforced the ceasefire, appears to have strengthened its influence in the southern Caucasus.
What led to the war?
In 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, the newly independent Armenia and Azerbaijan went to war over Nagorno-Karabakh, which had been an autonomous region within Azerbaijan during the Soviet years. Armenians have made historic claims about the enclave, which is populated largely by ethnic Armenians. By the time the all-out war came to an end in 1994, Armenia had captured Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts from Azerbaijani forces, representing approximately 13% of Azerbaijan’s territory.
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In September, Azerbaijani President Aliyev launched the offensive promising to recapture Nagorno-Karabakh and other districts occupied by Armenians. In six weeks of fighting, Azerbaijani forces, backed by armed drones and other equipment supplied by Turkey, broke through Armenian defenses and regained territory, including 40% of Nagorno-Karabakh itself.
How was the ceasefire achieved?
Russia, which has a security agreement with Armenia, remained neutral in the early days of the war when Turkey supported Azerbaijan. Russia negotiated a ceasefire two weeks after the conflict, but it did not hold. When Azerbaijan defeated the Armenian troops and captured territories, the Armenian prime minister sought help from Russia. But Putin said that the security guarantee is for Armenia, not for the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. But Russia was apparently concerned about the rapid change in the status quo and the more assertive security role that Turkey was playing in its backyard.
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By the third week of October, Russia set up small military posts along the border with Armenia, ostensibly to prevent the conflict from spreading to the mainland of Armenia and also to send a message to Baku. In the same week, Russia carried out a massive airstrike in Syria’s Idlib against Turkish-backed militants, killing dozens of them, which is seen as a warning from Moscow against Turkey. Putin accepted the victory of Azerbaijan (since the ceasefire allows the Azeri troops to control the territories they have taken) but avoided a total defeat of Armenia. Under pressure from a decisive Moscow, both sides agreed to cease operations.
What are the terms of the ceasefire?
Under the ceasefire, Armenia agreed to withdraw its troops from much of the territories around Nagorno-Karabakh. The core of the enclave with ethnic Armenians and Stepanakert as its capital would remain outside of Azerbaijan’s control. Baku will build a highway linking the newly captured territories with Nakhchivan, an autonomous republic of Azerbaijan that had been geographically separated from the mainland. As an intermediary for the truce, Russia would send some 2,000 peacekeepers to the region, who would patrol between Azerbaijani troops and Nagorno-Karabakh, including the Lachin corridor, which connects the enclave with Armenia.
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In short, Azerbaijan gained territories, but not all of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia lost territories that it had controlled since the 1990s, but avoided a total defeat as much of Nagorno-Karabakh would remain independent of Azeri control. And Russia gained a larger foothold in the region with its troops deployed within Azerbaijan.
Did Russia get what it wanted?
It’s complicated. The fact that Russia was able to enforce the ceasefire and keep Turkey and Western countries out of the final talks shows that Moscow remains a dominant power in the South Caucasus. Moscow had also wanted to send peacekeepers to the region (the Lavrov Plan), but both Armenia and Azerbaijan were not open to the idea before. Now Russia can do that. But the war also showed that Russian rule in the region could be challenged. Turkey supported Azerbaijan throughout the war against Moscow’s wishes and ensured that the Azerbaijani side prevailed. On Wednesday, the Turkish parliament approved sending troops to the region to join an observation post despite the ceasefire forcing the Russians to deploy peacekeepers. If Turkey continues to play an assertive role in the region through its ally Azerbaijan, a reluctant Moscow would face a new rival in its backyard.
Is the conflict over?
It is not. The war has upset the balance of power in favor of Azerbaijan. It did not get to take all of Nagorno-Karabakh for now, but it does not mean that it will not do so again. The Nagorno-Karabakh situation remains unresolved, which means that the conflict has only been postponed, not resolved.
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