Updated: October 15, 2020 7:49:33 pm
Global growth is projected to contract 4.4 percent, an upward revision of 0.8 percent since its June update, the IMF said.
Kaushik Basu, Cornell University economics professor and former World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu, has said that the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) projection that Bangladesh’s real GDP per capita exceeds real GDP per capita. of India, after India had a 25% lead five years ago, is shocking and calls for “bold fiscal / monetary policy.”
“Now I have checked the data. The IMF estimate shows that Bangladesh will cross India in real GDP per capita in 2021. Any emerging economy that does well is good news. But it is surprising that India, which had a 25% lead 5 years ago, is now lagging behind. This requires a bold fiscal / monetary policy, ”Basu posted on Twitter.
What does the IMF data show?
In its latest World Economic Outlook released this week, the IMF has projected The Indian economy will contract 10.3% in 2020-21, a more profound impact than the June estimate of a 4.5 percent contraction in the wake of the economic depression due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
“The forecast revisions are particularly important for India, where GDP contracted much more severely than expected in the second quarter (April-June). As a result, the economy is projected to contract 10.3% in 2020, before recovering 8.8% in 2021, ”he said.
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Global growth is projected to contract 4.4 percent, an upward revision of 0.8 percent since its June update, the IMF said.
The Reserve Bank of India has projected a 9.5 percent contraction for the Indian economy in 2020-21.
What does the comparison of GDP per capita show?
India’s GDP per capita, in nominal US dollar terms, is projected to be $ 1,876.53 in 2020, less than the $ 1,887.97 projected for Bangladesh. On average, India’s GDP per capita has been 24 percent higher than Bangladesh’s for the past five years, IMF data shows.
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However, after a slump, India’s GDP per capita is expected to exceed Bangladesh’s GDP per capita in 2021, and the IMF projects it at $ 2,030.62 versus $ 1,989.85 for the latter. However, the trend is not expected to continue for long, as India’s GDP per capita is expected to again fall below Bangladesh’s GDP per capita in 2024 to $ 2,544.26 versus $ 2,544.32.
In 2025, India’s GDP per capita is projected to be $ 2,729.24, again lower than Bangladesh’s projected GDP per capita of $ 2,756.10, the IMF said.
China’s per capita GDP in 2020 is projected to be $ 10,839.43, IMF data showed.
The GDP per capita of the other neighbors of India, Nepal and Sri Lanka, is expected to be $ 1,115.56 and $ 3,697.89, according to IMF data.
Data and forecasts for Bangladesh are presented on a fiscal year basis, but real GDP and purchasing power parity GDP aggregates that include Bangladesh are based on calendar year data, the IMF said.
What does the government say about the rankings?
Government sources have said that in terms of purchasing power parity, India’s GDP per capita was 11 times that of Bangladesh in 2019, PTI reported. The IMF estimated India’s per capita GDP in terms of PPP in 2020 at $ 6,284, compared to Bangladesh’s per capita GDP (PPP) of $ 5,139 for 2020, according to the report.
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