On Sunday, India reported 46,951 cases, the highest since Nov. 1.
Current numbers are relatively low compared to the peak of the first wave in September last year, when daily numbers crossed the 97,000 mark. However, a look at the chart would reveal that the recent rise is more consistent and faster.
Most of the cases during the current wave were reported in Maharashtra and Kerala. Maharashtra was also the largest contributor of cases during the first wave.
During the first wave, the state of West India contributed almost a quarter of the total reported cases in the country. In the past month, the state has witnessed a massive increase in cases. So far it has reported almost 60% of all cases reported in the country in the last month.
Kerala, which was able to successfully control the spread of the virus in the early days of the virus, is also contributing greatly to the ongoing increase. More than 11% of the total cases in the country reported in the last month were from Kerala.
However, the state is experiencing a downward trend when it comes to new infections.
The states of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh appear to have contained the virus. It was observed that these states did not contribute substantially to the current peak in the cases unlike during the first wave.
Punjab is also experiencing an increase in the number of cases. The northern state of India reported more than 5% of total cases in the past 30 days. During the first wave, the state contributed 2.23% of the total cases.
However, the current positivity rate, which is a measure of the number of positive cases versus the total number of tests performed, was found to be much lower compared to the second wave period.
The positivity rate will be high if the number of positive tests is too high or if the total number of tests is too low. A higher positivity rate suggests higher transmission and that there are likely more people with coronavirus in the community who have not yet been tested.
On the other hand, a low positivity rate means that the level of transmission of the coronavirus, relative to the number of tests, is low at the moment.
A comparison of the daily tests would reveal that the test capacity has been reduced compared to the first wave. Except for the last two days, the number of daily tests has remained below one million. In the period from February to March, the country was conducting less than eight lakhs of tests per day.
The number of coronavirus cases is expected to rise as the government expands testing.
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