The assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a leading Iranian nuclear scientist and brigadier general of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), outside Tehran, on Friday triggered a new crisis in West Asia.
It is the highest-profile assassination of an Iranian regime figure since the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, who commanded the IRGC’s Quds Force, in January this year by the United States in Baghdad.
Fakhrizadeh, according to the United States and Israel, had overseen Iran’s nuclear weapons program in the 1990s and early 2000s, and remained a key figure in the country’s nuclear program and in the Ministry of Defense. Iranian media reported that gunmen opened fire on Fakhrizadeh’s car as he was driving through Absard, a small city located about 65 km east of Tehran.
The carnage comes at a crucial time for Iran. There is hope that Joe Biden, the next US president, will return to the talks, ending months of “maximum pressure”, a policy adopted by outgoing President Donald Trump, which brought both countries to the brink of war after the assassination of Soleimani.
Iran had also increased its arsenal of low-enriched uranium beyond the limits set by the 2015 nuclear deal in recent years. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, as of November 2, Iran had an arsenal of 2,442.9 kg of low-enriched uranium, above the 202.8 kg allowed.
Iran began violating the terms of the nuclear deal, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), after President Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from the deal in May 2018. The loss of Fakhrizadeh, at a time when Iran is Taking small steps to expand its nuclear program, either as a strategy or as a bargaining chip, is a clear setback for their plans.
Who killed?
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zariff has said there are “serious indications” that Israel was involved in the attack. The US media have quoted US intelligence sources as saying that the attack was carried out by Israel. In the past 10 years, at least six Iranian scientists [Massoud Ali-Mohammadi, Majid Shahriyari, Fereydoun Abbassi-Davani, Darioush Rezai, Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan and Fakhrizadeh] They were killed in bomb and firearm attacks suspected of Israeli hands. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had called Fakhrizadeh at a press conference in 2018. “Remember that name, Fakhrizadeh,” he said, when he presented a photograph of the nuclear physicist.
The attack comes weeks after President Trump allegedly searched for options to bomb Iran before leaving office on January 20. He was dissuaded by his assistants, according to a NYT report. Later, Mike Pompeo, the US Secretary of State, traveled to Israel and held talks with Netanyahu.
Pompeo and the Israeli prime minister then flew to Neom, the futuristic megacity being built in Saudi Arabia, and held secret talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in the first direct talks between top leaders of Israel and the Kingdom. It is no secret that Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Trump administration would want to stop the reactivation of the nuclear deal with Iran, which could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Iran and leave the Islamic Republic stronger. When the leaders met in Neom, it was speculated that something was brewing in Western Asia. Then came the attack on Fakhrizadeh.
Limited options
Iran has threatened to “strike like thunder” in retaliation. There are already protests in the country, asking for revenge. But Iran’s options against Israel appear to be limited, unless Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militia and political party, is ready to attack northern Israel from its bases in southern Lebanon.
What Iran can do, which it demonstrated in 2019 after Trump reimposed sanctions, is to target oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz or oil installations in Sunni monarchies across the Gulf. But Iran did not opt for an all-out war even after Soleimani’s death. Their response was limited to attacking US bases in Iraq, and even that came after enough warnings that the US could take precautionary measures to protect its soldiers.
Iran’s dilemma
Now the question is what would Iran do if it wanted to avenge Fakhrizadeh’s death. In recent months, Iran has come under great pressure as US sanctions ruined its already bloody economy, Israel’s covert and overt operations raised questions about the effectiveness of its security apparatus, and regional realignments raised new geopolitical risks. He lost a master strategist when Soleimani was assassinated. A mysterious explosion damaged a centrifuge assembly room at its main nuclear site, Natanz, earlier this year.
In Syria, Iranian assets and militias were the target of repeated attacks by Israeli jets in recent months, when Vladimir Putin’s Russia, an Iranian ally that virtually controls Syria’s airspace, looked the other way. And now it has lost an important nuclear physicist.
Iran faces a growing dilemma. If he does not retaliate after repeated provocations, there would be doubts, both inside and outside the country, about his ability to protect the top leaders of the regime or take countermeasures against what he calls “terrorism” from his sworn enemies. . If he takes any major retaliatory action, it could escalate the conflict, giving space for Israel and the Trump administration to take swift military action, cutting off the diplomatic path for Biden to lead the United States back to the nuclear deal.
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