On Monday, India reported 68,020 new infections, its biggest increase since October last year. The total number of cases in the country has already crossed the 12 million mark.
Although the ongoing increase is restricted to limited areas, as many as ten states have started to show an upward trajectory in daily new infections.
First vs Second wave
The recent outbreak of Covid infections is faster than the previous wave in September-October last year.
During the first wave, it took 32 days for cases to increase from 18,000 to 50,000.
However, cases have increased almost twice the rate of the second wave. It only took 17 days for cases to increase from 18,377 on March 11 to 50,518 on March 27 of this year.
In Maharashtra, it took 31 days for daily cases to rise from 11,000 to 21,900 during the first wave. The same increase took only nine days this time.
The positivity rate, which is an indication of the spread of the virus in the community, has passed the 21% mark in the state, indicating that the virus could be much more widespread than the numbers reveal.
In Mumbai, Maharashtra, it took 24 days for daily cases to rise from 850 to 2,100 during the second wave. In the first wave, the corresponding increase had taken 6 more days.
In Gujarat, it took six days for new cases this time compared to 30 days during the first wave to go from 900 to 1,500.
The western state surpassed its peak value for new cases when it reported more than 1,500 infections on March 25. Since then, the state has continued to report more than 1,500 cases per day.
Punjab also surpassed its peak number of daily cases during the current wave when it reported more than 2,661 cases per day on March 25.
As in the other worst affected states, the current growth rate of new cases in Punjab was found to be much faster than the first wave.
And the same goes for Chhattisgarh, which is also among the worst affected states this time around.
It took 40 days for new cases to increase from 200 to 1,400 during the first wave. The same increase took 24 days this time.
Number of active cases also at a record level
The total number of active cases in the country surpassed the 5 lakh mark on Sunday. It took just 4 days for active cases to skyrocket from 4 lakh to 5 lakh, making this the fastest increase in one lakh of active cases since the start of the pandemic.
Five states – Maharashtra, Kerala, Punjab, Karnataka and Chhattisgarh – accumulate 80.17% of the total active cases in the country.
In the past week, Covid-19-related deaths also increased by 51%, the steepest increase since December 21-27. The country has been reporting more than 200 deaths per day for the past six days.
Will things get worse?
The number of cases is likely to rise further as a result of relaxed restrictions, the holiday season and assembly elections in four states and one Union territory.
India saw its peak of daily infections once it began gradually loosening restrictions after a strict lockdown.
This time around, most of the economy has already opened up and restrictions have largely been relaxed. In fact, some states such as Maharashtra and Punjab have begun to re-impose restrictions to control the situation.
However, in the absence of a strict lockdown, the virus is likely to spread at a higher rate than last year.
In addition, the discovery of new strains of the virus, which appear to be more transmissible, has also raised concern.
However, the government has not officially confirmed whether the current increase may be directly related to the new strains.
What is different this time
The extent of cases, unlike the first phase, is restricted to only a selected number of states.
According to the health ministry, 84% of new cases are limited to just eight states and five states account for 80% of total cases.
In fact, Maharashtra alone has largely dominated the ongoing increase in the country with the state accounting for about 60% of new daily infections on average.
Also, unlike the previous wave, when vaccine candidates were still in various stages of development, India now has two vaccines: Covishield and Covaxin.
Although the country is far from achieving herd immunity, the ongoing vaccination campaign is likely to make a difference in the fight against the pandemic.
The Union Health Ministry said that the majority of coronavirus-related deaths occurred among people over the age of 45. With India opening its inoculation campaign to include everyone over 45 as of April 1, the country will be able to protect its most vulnerable groups. against the virus.
So far, the country has administered more than 60 million doses and fully vaccinated almost 8.87 million people, almost 0.65% of the total population.
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