Updated: November 23, 2020 9:45:06 pm
The projected track of the system likely to intensify in a severe cyclonic storm. (Source: IMD)
In a week, the second cyclone is taking shape in the northern Indian Ocean region. The Bay of Bengal will see its second severe cyclone of the year, after Super Cyclone Amphan formed in May. It is likely to reach the coast of Tamil Nadu in the middle of the week.. The next three days will see extremely heavy rains, strong winds, and very rough sea conditions.
Why are Tamil Nadu and Puducherry on ‘red’ alert?
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast the development of a cyclone in the southwestern region of the Bay of Bengal, off the coast of Tamil Nadu. After Cyclone Gaja in 2018, this will be the second cyclone to cross Tamil Nadu in the past two years.
As of 11.30am on Monday, it was still a depression located about 560 kilometers southeast of Chennai.
The Met department has said it will turn into a cyclone. Once intensified, it would acquire its name ‘Nivar’, proposed by Iran.
When will the cyclone develop, what would its intensity be?
The depression will intensify into a cyclone sometime Tuesday. In this stage, the wind speed will oscillate between 70 and 80 km / h with gusts of 90 km / h.
The cyclone will gain even more strength in a severe cyclone category (90-100 km / h with gusts of 110 km / h) by Wednesday. 📣 Express Explained is now on Telegram
Satellite image of Cyclone Nivar. (Source: IMD)
“It is expected to reach the coast of Tamil Nadu on Wednesday afternoon. The projected runway indicates its onshore crossing between Karaikal and Mamallapuram near Puducherry as a severe cyclonic storm (100 to 110 km / h with gusts of 120 km / h), ”said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, IMD CEO.
What adverse weather can this cyclone cause on the east coast?
The maximum danger due to this cyclone will be caused to Tamil Nadu. Extreme weather here would occur on both Tuesday and Wednesday. In association with the development of the severe cyclonic storm, sea conditions in the west-southwest regions of the Bay of Bengal have turned rough to extremely rough and remain in their worst condition on Wednesday.
With extremely heavy rains, on the order of 20cm or more, forecast on Wednesday, IMD has placed Tamil Nadu under a ‘red’ alert (take action). The northern districts here could experience rainfall of more than 24 cm in the day.
Heavy rains (64-115mm) are also forecast over Rayalaseema, Telangana, the coast of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal and the southern interior of Karnataka on 24-26 November.
Southern Chhattisgarh and Odisha will also be under the influence of the cyclone, with some rain activity likely on November 26-27.
From Monday, strong winds prevailed at sea and it is expected to gain momentum over the next three days.
On Tuesday, winds with speeds of 65 to 75 km / hr with gusts of 85 km / hr would prevail off the coast of Tamil Nadu. As the cyclone moves closer to shore and falls into the ‘severe’ category, winds with speeds of 100 to 110 km / hr with gusts of 120 km / h are forecast in northern Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal. Such strong winds are expected for at least 12 hours on Wednesday.
At the moment of the passage of the cyclone towards the earth, a storm surge is expected with tidal waves up to one meter high above the astronomical tide. This could cause low-lying areas to flood. Most of the storm surge would be experienced along the coastal areas between Puducherry and Chennai.
On Wednesday, sea conditions would be high or very unfavorable, causing waves of up to 10 meters in height.
“It is very dangerous for fishermen, sailboats and also seaports,” said Mohapatra.
What areas will be affected by the cyclone?
The northern districts of Tamil Nadu will face the greatest danger. On Tuesday, heavy rains are forecast for Pudukottai, Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Karaikal, Nagapattinam, Cuddalore, Ariyalur and Perambu. On the day of the cyclone that crosses the land, districts such as Puducherry, Kallakurchi, Kadalur, Villupuram, Tiruvannamalai, Chengalpattu and Karaikal could experience extremely heavy rains.
The coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh, Nellore and Chittoor de Rayalaseema, Telangana, the southern interior of Karnataka will also receive rains due to this cyclone between 24 and 26 November.
What damage is expected in Tamil Nadu?
The IMD has suggested a total suspension of fishing activity in the west-southwest regions of the Bay of Bengal until November 25. Fishermen have been warned not to go out to sea for the next three days.
Temporary houses and shacks could be damaged. Power and communication lines, trees could be uprooted. Standing crops could be affected due to the saline water carried to land by the cyclone.
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