October 6, 2020 3:15:42 am
Paswans from LJP with Nitish Kumar from JD (U). (Express file)
Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) has decided to go alone in the Bihar elections, fighting the JD (U), while remaining part of the BJP-led NDA in the Center. This has been an arrangement that has been interested in a section of the BJP leaders. Why does this section prefer a split confidentiality agreement?
Playing long term
The proposal that LJP fight alone in Bihar while being part of the core NDA is part of a long-term plan suggested by BJP strategists. JD (U), the largest partner in the Bihar alliance, is on the brink of disintegration. It is based entirely on the popularity of the three-time Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, whom the BJP leaders consider to be in the last stage of his career. Once he retires, the BJP can push to merge him with the BJP and sideline the remaining leaders. The BJP has already managed to get the JD (U) to agree to an equal participation of seats at the polls. As the JD (U) is committed to providing seats for the smaller ally HAM, the BJP could end up competing more seats than the JD (U). If it succeeds in becoming the largest party after the elections, it would accelerate the disintegration of JD (U).
Overcome anti-incumbency
Polls leading up to the poll announcement have indicated voter fatigue against Nitish Kumar. Having ‘left’ the BJP and joined Lalu Prasad’s RJD for the 2015 elections, Nitish is not accepted anyway by the BJP’s compromised vote bank.
In such a situation, the BJP emerging as the largest partner could energize the cadre. Although BJP leaders, including Bihar Bhupender Yadav’s party secretary general, have insisted that Nitish would complete another five-year term as CM, at least four BJP leaders agreed that the cadre expects a change by the middle of the next term, if the NDA returns to power.
The LJP fighting separately could help the BJP clear a section of the votes against the incumbency, the BJP hopes.
Also, the BJP fighting as a larger partner can help the party make the Narendra Modcentric election. A poll indicated that Modi continues to enjoy popularity despite unemployment and the migrant worker crisis. The BJP’s strategy is to maintain its base among urban voters and advanced castes, and to use welfare schemes to attract rural voters whom it failed to convince in 2015. The prime minister recently launched a series of value development projects of 16,000 million rupees.
Earnings for LJP
At first glance, Chirag Paswan and other LJP deputies have systematically attacked Nitish Kumar for his performance over the past five years, claiming there is anti-incumbency. Paswan has also reportedly brought this up with the head of the BJP, JP Nadda, in meetings. The electoral movement helps to separate the LJP from the anti-incumbency against the JD (U), setting itself up as a kind of opposition.
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Second, after months of posturing, the LJP has managed to exit the alliance with the BJP and remain with it in the NDA. His effusive praise for the BJP and Modi has meant that Ram Vilas Paswan remains Union minister, and the LJP can now fight alone.
His insistence that he is a better friend to the BJP than to the JD (U) means that in public perception he is with the BJP. The stance and the announcement to go alone have given LJP considerable airtime, a party with just two seats and a vote share below 5%.
Once again, the LJP is now free to fight the JDU in as many seats as possible. LJP leaders believe that as long as Nitish is in a position of strength, the LJP will not be able to prosper. Your goal will be to reduce JD (U) numbers while increasing yours. It will seek to fight more than half of the seats; if it wins more seats, it grows; if not, it at least prepares booth level workers for the future.
Ultimately, most see Chirag Paswan as an ambitious politician. He believes that after Nitish and Lalu’s generation, he needs to position himself for the future as a contender for CM.
What can go wrong
Going solo also carries risks for the LJP. It could negatively affect your Dalit votes and a BJP candidate may win in certain constituencies.
If the LJP cannot win a portion of the anti-government vote, it could help the Opposition to consolidate those votes. This would alter the arithmetic of the coalition.
The current strategy could also generate mistrust among both BJP and JD (U) workers when they are aware of the differences between them.
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