NEW DELHI: While victory and defeat in the 2020 Bihar assembly elections will be decided on November 10, but if the predictions of the exit polls are to be believed, the Tejashwi-led ‘Mahagathbandhan’ is expected to Yadav forms the next government in Bihar.
The main exit polls on Saturday (November 7, 2020) predicted a clear advantage for ‘Mahagathbandhan’ led by Tejashwi Yadav over Janata Dal-United and NDA led by BJP alliance in the highly controversial 2020 Bihar assembly triphasic elections.
Interestingly, although most exit polls predicted that the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ would win 120-130 seats, they estimated that the NDA would win approximately 104-110 seats. However, no alliance or party appeared to be gaining a majority on its own, leading to the possibility of a hung assembly.
Chirag Paswan’s LJP is expected to win 4-8 seats and is likely to emerge as a kingmaker if no party wins a majority in Bihar. Several exit polls had predicted a close end, and the anti-incumbency factor weighed heavily on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who is seeking a fourth consecutive term in office.
As projections show RJD is winning the maximum number of seats in the state, Bihar’s exit polls reflect the rise of Tejashwi Yadav beyond the shadow of his father and party boss Lalu Yadav. These elections may establish Tejashwi as a pivot in Bihar politics and may also become the next face of the prime minister.
According to Times Now-CVoter Exit Poll for the Bihar Assembly Elections 2020, The Great Alliance of Tejashwi Yadav is projected to win 120 seats compared to 116 seats in the NDA led by Nitish Kumar.
Interestingly, today’s Chanakya also predicted a landslide victory for the “Mahagathbandhan” with over 180 seats. A vote projection for the Bihar election by Today’s Chanakya predicted that the BJP-JDU obtained 34% of the total votes polled, while the RJD-Congress received 44%. Other parties, including Chirag Paswan’s LJP, received 22%, he predicted.
Meanwhile, the prediction made by India Today-Axis My India says that 44% of the people preferred Tejashwi Yadav as the next chief minister of Bihar. Incumbent Nitish Kumar got the go-ahead from 35% of those surveyed, while Chirag Paswan was preferred by just seven percent.
Zee Maha’s exit poll predicted 104-128 seats for NDA; RJD getting 108-131, LJP winning 5-8 and others getting 3-6 seats,
Tejashwi Yadav could have further milked his youthful image by gaining sympathy on the basis of his imprisoned father Lalu Yadav. Yadav’s scion also cleverly kept his family members, including his father, and his images away from election campaigns.
It appears that the RJD also made the right decisions in forming the alliance by staying away from deceived parties like HAM, VIP, RLSP, who were not trustworthy. With the results of the Bihar exit poll in favor of RJD, one of the biggest factors that may have worked for Tejashwi Yadav could be a strong Muslim-Yadav loyalist / party endorsement caste equation.
Furthermore, incorporating the CPI (ML), a party with large pledged and transferable votes, may have affected the vote for the better. Furthermore, the Mahagathbandhan seemed to be going strong without infighting or confusion within the alliance, unlike the fight between BJP-JD (U) and LJP.
The promise of jobs in the face of opposition to Nitish could have further enhanced RJD’s chances in the Bihar polls. Tejashwi Yadav, the son of Rashtriya Janata Dal’s president, Lalu Prasad, managed to clearly outshine most of the others. All parties had supported their candidates during the campaign, although the interim president of Congress, Sonia Gandhi, and the former president of the BJP, Amit Shah, were conspicuous by their absence.
On behalf of the NDA, Bihar’s Chief Minister and JD (U) star activist Nitish Kumar and BJP Leader and Union Minister Nityanand Rai expressed their views at the election rallies. In the absence of RJD President Lalu Prasad, Tejashwi Yadav took over the campaign and sought votes for the Grand Alliance candidates by holding 247 meetings.
Tejashwi Yadav addressed 247 public meetings on his own and made four tours. He held 12 public meetings in one day on average. RJD spokesman Mrityunjay Tiwari said that since the beginning of the election campaign, Tejashwi Yadav held more than a dozen meetings every day.
In addition, Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi held eight meetings on behalf of the Grand Alliance, while Congress Speaker Randeep Singh Surjewala held more than 20 rallies to demand votes for Grand Alliance candidates. Chhattisgarh’s Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel also participated in the election campaign in Bihar.
Speaking of the NDA, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar held over 160 meetings of which he was with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in six meetings. In addition, the Chief Minister also held virtual meetings and conveyed his thoughts to the people through the use of technology.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed 12 election rallies in these elections. Their first meeting was held in Sasaram on October 23 and the final election meeting was held in Forbesganj on November 3.
BJP President JP Nadda addressed 22 election rallies during the election and toured and met with workers and intellectuals in various constituencies. The NDA also sent Uttar Pradesh Prime Minister Yogi Adityanath on the election campaign and held 19 election rallies. Furthermore, trade union ministers Rajnath Singh, Smriti Irani, Anurag Thakur, Dharmendra Pradhan also campaigned in these elections.
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