[ad_1]
A detailed analysis of the test data suggests that there is no strong link between test rates and death rates in all countries. However, the analysis suggests that countries that have been able to test more have also been able to ease blocking restrictions more or earlier, suggesting that they may be more aware of and therefore more secure in the spread of covid- 19 in their countries. India may not have had to pay a high price for its low levels of evidence in terms of deaths, but low levels of evidence may have led to a much tighter and lengthier blockade than in most other parts of the world. .
At first glance, the test numbers suggest that India is not testing enough. Despite an acceleration in testing, it still tests fewer people than many other affected countries.
When the national blockade was imposed on March 25, India was conducting 539 tests per million people and ranked 52nd among countries in terms of test rates. Since then, the numbers of the tests have multiplied by 47, even when the numbers of cases have increased more than one hundred times, with India conducting 758 tests per million people, making it the 24th country in terms of tests per million.
However, as Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) officials have pointed out, India has also found fewer positive cases for each test it has performed (rate of return), and has not had to pay a heavy price in terms of deaths. . up to this point.
Evidence from around the world also seems to suggest that there is no simple linear relationship between evidence and death rates. Some countries that tried aggressively from the beginning (when the cases were less) like Italy and Belgium ended up having very high mortality rates.
However, since this is an ongoing pandemic, and the virus case count continues to rise, especially in Asian countries like India, it is too early to say whether ICMR’s testing strategy has proven correct.
“These indicators cannot be considered in isolation since they are, at best, indicative and depend on the test capacity, the health care system, the stage of infection and the demographic factors of the countries,” said Tanmay. Mahapatra, an epidemiologist at CARE India, a non-profit organization. working in the health sector.
At the moment, India’s death rate (less than 4 percent) seems relatively low compared to countries with large outbreaks like Italy and the UK, but India’s death count is rising rapidly, and still We don’t know when it will peak, or if there will be more waves of infections after the first spike. However, compared to countries like Indonesia and Mexico, which have low test rates, high performance rates (positive cases per test), and higher deaths, India seems to be better placed so far.
Within India, the states with the highest test rates: Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan have so far had lower death rates. States that have reported high fatality cases: Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal and Karnataka have low or moderate test rates. Of these, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh also have high levels of positivity. This suggests that they may not be testing enough despite indications of higher prevalence.
To be sure, there are limitations to this comparison. Positivity or rate of return is a function of the test strategy and how well it captures the segment of the population that is most likely to be at risk. In addition, fatality counts depend not only on the extent of early detection (which adequate testing can guarantee) but also on other factors such as access to medical care, the age of patients, comorbidities, and even how well causes of death are reported in all regions.
However, the data suggests that early detection through increased testing may help. For example, Delhi increased evidence from the beginning and experienced faster growth (49.5%) in cases up to case 500. However, growth in cases slowed down later. At the other extreme, Punjab, which was slow to accelerate testing at first, saw a much larger increase in cases in later stages, and continues to witness an increase in cases. This analysis is based on states that had more than 500 cases as of May 3.
“We made a big mistake in the early stages of not testing enough,” said Jacob John, professor of epidemiology and community medicine at Christian Medical College (CMC) Vellore. “There is no doubt that we are in the community broadcast stage.”
So far, ICMR officials have denied transmission to the community, but due to limited evidence so far, and the lack of random sampling in the population, the true extent of covid-19 prevalence in the country remains. unknown. It is this uncertainty, and the fact that the crown case curve is not doubling, which has led to a protracted blockade that has not only destroyed the livelihoods of millions, but has also jeopardized health services routine (not greedy).
Countries that adopted comprehensive testing in the early stages of the pandemic had much less stringent restrictions compared to India, and have already been able to lift most of those restrictions.
Can India better manage the spread of the epidemic in the coming days? The answer to that may well determine how fast and sustainable the country’s opening will be.
.
[ad_2]
