Arrah / Gaya / Raghopur (Bihar): In the Naarhi village of Arrah, as the sun was about to set, a group of young people waited eagerly to receive Rajeshwar Paswan, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) candidate from the Agiaon reserved constituency. They all belonged to the Bhumihar landowning caste, considered the most influential group in the region.
“Nitish chacha ko hatana hai. It’s baar nahin (It’s time to vote for Nitish), ”one of them declared.
“So will they vote for Mahagathbandhan?” Asked this correspondent. Against Janata Dal (United) MLA Prabhunath Prasad, who faces strong opposition for allegedly remaining as an absent representative for the last term, is CPI (ML-Liberation) candidate Manoj Manzil, who is running as a candidate for the opposition alliance.
“Hamare umeedwaar Lojapa pratyashi Rajeshwar Paswan hai. Unko humhi ne khada kiya hai (Our candidate is Rajeshwar Paswan from the Lok Janshakti Party. We have sent him), ”he said, as another from the group led Paswan’s convoy to the village.
“Hum log is area ke kingmaker hai. It’s baar bhi hamara umeedwar hi chuna jayega (We are the kings of the area. This time too, our candidate will be elected, ”he added.
The group was overflowing with confidence. Soon, Paswan’s convoy reached Naarhi. The group of men surrounded him with slogans of “Rajeshwar Paswan Zindabad”, “Nitish Sarkaar Murdabad” and, more importantly, “Narendra Modi Zindabad”.
Talking to The wire, Paswan said: “Our leader Chirag Paswan is going to form the government with the BJP, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi,” he said.
“I will work for all the communities here. I will represent everyone here, ”he added in an apparent dig at the CPI (ML-Liberation), which has historically aligned itself with Dalits and backward communities in Arrah, a region that two decades ago witnessed brutal inter-community caste wars. landowners and landless Dalits.
It’s no longer a bipolar contest
Like Agiaon, the presence of LJP candidates in the electoral race has complicated the social equations on multiple Bihar seats. The assembly polls were initially viewed as a direct bipolar contest between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by JDU and the Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) led by Rashtriya Janata Dal.
However, the LJP, firmly under the control of Ram Vilas Paswan’s son Chirag Paswan, withdrew from the NDA at the last minute to muddy the waters. Chirag, who has been highly critical of Prime Minister Nitish Kumar’s tenure, stated that he will run his candidates only against the JDUs while supporting the BJP candidates, wherever the saffron party is competing. He has also been relentless in showing his love for the prime minister, which has caused embarrassment to many in the Bihar unit of the BJP, which is fighting the elections in alliance with JDU.
Political observers view development differently enough to keep interest in polls alive. A part of them believe that the LJP’s last minute departure from the NDA is a ploy by the BJP to keep Nitish Kumar under control. Some others think that Chirag’s departure marked Kumar’s dominance in the NDA over the Bihar unit of BJP. It was Kumar, they think, who made sure Chirag stayed out of the NDA, as he is confident of gaining the support of the Paswan / Dusadh community, a Dalit group said to make up around 4% of the state’s population, and that it is seen as the loyal vote bank of the LJP.
Another section believes that the LJP can also neutralize the strong anti-incumbent sentiment against Kumar. “Chirag Paswan represents youth leadership along with RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav. People under the age of 35 make up the majority of the state’s electorate. Given this, a large chunk of young people who would otherwise have voted for the Mahagathbandhan may consider the LJP as an alternative, ”said a Patna political analyst who did not want to be named.
While the LJP may end up cornering what could possibly have been Mahagathbandhan votes, The wire found that in at least four seats in central Bihar, LJP has become a platform for “higher” caste groups.
In Agiaon, Paliganj of Patna, Raghopur of Vaishali and Imamganj of Gaya, a large part of the disgruntled upper caste groups back the LJP candidates. This may mean that the party is more likely to undermine the traditional votes of the NDA than those of the opposition alliance.
“Ideally, we would have liked to vote for the BJP. But since the JDU got the ticket, we will switch to the LJP, ”said a Rajput man in Baddhiyan village of Agiaon constituency.
Similarly, in Paliganj, a Bhumhar voter said The wire, “Usha Vidyarthi ko dene ka soch rahe hai es baar (I am thinking of voting for Usha Vidyarthi) ”. Vidyarthi is a former MLA BJP but is competing for an LJP ticket.
In Raghopur, where Tejashwi Yadav is seeking a second term, a BJP supporter said the LJP has screwed up the equation for his party’s candidate, Satish Kumar Yadav, by introducing Rakesh Roshan, a Rajput.
“Roshan has facilitated the Tejashwi contest. If the LJP had not presented a candidate, it was likely that it would win, but with fewer votes. Now, the Rajput votes would go to the LJP, splitting the anti-RJD votes, ”he said. Roshan also had experience in the BJP, but he switched to the LJP to participate in the elections.
In Imamganj, where NDA ally Jitan Ram Manjhi is in the fray, the contest has turned triangular due to LJP candidate Shobha Sinha, another former BJP leader.
A BJP sign in Bihar. Photo: Ajoy Ashirwad Mahaprashasta / The Wire
Upper castes turn to LJP
It may seem ironic that the LJP, a party considered to represent the Dalits in the state, has given many entries to former BJP leaders, most of whom belong to “advanced” caste groups.
However, Chirag has not hesitated to give them tickets in hopes of being able to snatch some seats from them with the help of higher caste communities. Two of his candidates, Rajendra Singh and Ramesh Chaurasia, were BJP’s bigwigs before buying LJP tickets. Singh, a former vice president of the Bihar BJP who was credited with a major role in the party’s 2014 victory in Jharkhand and was considered a likely candidate for chief minister in the 2015 Bihar assembly polls, is now competing with Dinara of Rohtas on an LJP ballot.
Similarly, the top leaders of the BJP, Rameshwar Chaurasia and the five-time Sasaram MLA Jawahar Prasad, both from EBC communities that are considered supporters of the NDA, have also joined the BJP.
“Some of the other LJP candidates with RSS experience include Pradip Thakur from Rural Darbhanga, Deo Ranjan Singh from Maharajganj and Rameshwar Chaurasiya from Sasaram,” reported The fifth, which added that RSS workers are campaigning for BJP and LJP candidates who have partnered with the Sangh give birth.
A significant number of LJP candidates came from the BJP primarily because the agreement to share seats with the JDU has left them unhappy. In the 2015 elections, most of the BJP candidates had the opportunity to participate in the elections because their party fought against the JDU. Lead journalist Manoj Singh, who has been touring northern Bihar for The wire, He said: “Many BJP leaders complain that after taking care of their seats in the assembly for five years, they are expected to leave it for the JDU candidates during the elections.”
The BJP is known for keeping his house in order. However, turmoil in his state unit has defined the next assembly elections in Bihar. When it comes to the LJP, it remains to be seen whether it will win enough to put the NDA at a disadvantage against the RJD-led alliance.
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