“We caution that the production peaks seen across sectors in October 2020 are an exaggeration of the true recovery on the ground, as they have been driven by a large component of pent-up demand that may not be sustained beyond the holiday period.” . it’s over, “said the agency’s chief economist, Aditi Nayar.
The factors that remain to be observed are the pace of public spending in the second half of the fiscal year, after the unexpected contraction registered in the September quarter, he added.
The possible re-imposition of restrictions in one or more states due to a further increase in CVID-19 infections could moderate the momentum of recovery in the coming months, he warned.
The agency said trends available for early November suggest some moderation in these peaks in the current month.
In October, 10 of the 17 high-frequency indicators tracked by the agency showed a recovery, including GST e-way bills, where growth accelerated to 21.4% compared to the prior year period, up from 9 , 4% in the previous period. September.
The agency, however, said it is “cautious” about the durability of the increase in GST electronic track bills after October.
The 8.8 percent growth in electricity was largely driven by a favorable base, he said, noting that it was down 13.3 percent from the prior year period.
He added that subsequently, electricity demand growth has moderated to 5.3 percent in year-on-year terms during November 1 to 20.
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