After the election of Donald Trump in late 2016, the then-president-elect received an unprecedented phone call from Taiwan’s leader, Tsai Ing-Wen, which broke decades of diplomatic protocol and sparked angry protests from China.
Now, critics of Beijing are seeking a similar show of support from President-elect Joe Biden, who promised a hard line against China after a race defending the compromise. While Tsai already welcomed Biden’s victory on Twitter, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu told lawmakers Thursday that Taipei was “considering various ways” to congratulate the new president.
Speculation about a simple phone call illustrates Biden’s challenge to establish his own policy in China after four years of rule-breaking under Trump: restore the status quo and face allegations of weakness, or continue Trump’s provocations and risk undermining. cooperation with Beijing on matters of greater domestic scope. concerns like trade and climate change.
Trump later withdrew from Taiwan while courting Xi Jinping’s help with North Korea, saying he would ask the Chinese president before getting another call from Tsai. Still, the administration eventually won a legion of supporters among democracy advocates in Hong Kong and Taipei with a series of measures to pressure Beijing in the tense atmosphere of the trade war and the coronavirus outbreak.
“Trump started the trade war with China, imposed tariffs on products made in China, and we as Hong Kong people see the enemies of our enemies as our allies,” said a 27-year-old defender of democracy who only gave his first name, David. “Many of us are losing hope, because we consider Biden to be soft on China.”
After decades as part of a U.S. foreign policy establishment that favored changing China through compromise, Biden will take office at a time of growing support in the West for a more confrontational approach. An official from Biden’s transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the president-elect’s approach to Taiwan.
The new president will face even more pressure to stand his ground after the Hong Kong government purged four opposition lawmakers from the former British colony’s legislature for disloyalty on Wednesday, prompting the entire pro-democracy bloc of the body to resign.
Several leading Chinese hawks, including Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and even Trump, are among potential Republican presidential contenders in 2024, limiting Biden’s room for maneuver. Pompeo said this week that the current administration was “not done yet” with China, as the United States announced “economic partnership” talks with Taiwan and sanctions against four more Chinese officials for their duties in Hong Kong.
Trump on Thursday signed an order banning US investments in Chinese companies owned or controlled by the country’s military, saying Beijing was “increasingly exploiting” US capital to develop and modernize its security apparatus.
China, which views Taiwan as part of its territory even though the two sides have been ruled separately for more than 70 years, fired “aircraft carrier killer” missiles into the South China Sea in August to signal its determination against the United States. . Beijing will be anxious. to set the bottom line with Biden early to prevent the relationship from spiraling out of control.
Xi is among a handful of world leaders who have refrained from congratulating Biden because Trump refuses to budge. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said in a briefing on Monday that Beijing hoped the next president would “work in the same direction as us in the future,” putting aside questions about trade talks and the tangible moves I expected from Biden.
‘More than a Softie’
Claudia Mo, who was among the lawmakers who resigned Thursday in Hong Kong, said that while Biden was seen as “softer” and a proponent of “light containment,” she expected him to take a similar approach with Trump. “In diplomatic circles here, one message has been clear: that the American stance of ‘containment of China’ is bipartisan,” Mo said.
Although Biden’s promises, vowing to “support friends and allies to promote our prosperity and shared values in Asia-Pacific,” have been more radical than specific, he has taken a hard line and called Xi a “bully.” He has pledged to “fully enforce” the Hong Kong Democracy and Human Rights Act signed by Trump last year and called China’s mass detention and reeducation program for the predominantly Muslim Uighur minority in the Xinjiang region “genocide. “.
A list of transition advisers announced by Biden this week included several experts from China who have also adopted an aggressive tone. Ely Ratner, who served as Biden’s deputy national security adviser and is now part of his Defense Department review team, cautioned against “hopeful thinking” about China and vowed that Taiwan would be “top of the line.” of the president-elect’s agenda. .
However, these advisers have made it clear that they want to avoid a “New Cold War.” Antony Blinken, a former undersecretary of state often discussed as one of the leading candidates for a foreign policy post in the Biden administration, has said Washington needs to restore “balance” in its relationship with Beijing and Taipei. Another transition adviser, Brad Setser, has accused Taiwan of being a bigger currency manipulator than China.
Of course, critics of Beijing in Taiwan and Hong Kong have little choice but to deal with the administration in the White House. Activists in Hong Kong hope Biden will implement asylum and refugee programs for those seeking to flee the city and scrutinize companies that are complicit in eroding their autonomy, said Samuel Chu, founder of the Hong Kong Democracy Council, an American think tank. .
Taiwan wants Biden to go ahead with sales of asymmetric weapons systems that it believes are necessary to deter an attack from an increasingly powerful China and continue to build the “Quad” partnership between Australia, India, Japan, and the US. Tsai, the Taiwanese president, also hopes that shared caution over Chinese rule can help her secure a trade deal with the United States.
“A lot of people in Taiwan are concerned about Biden’s victory because Trump offered Taiwan a lot of friendly arms sales and favorable bills,” said Simon Chang, professor of political science at National Taiwan University. “Whether the next government will continue with the same policy is a question.”
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