India has seen up to 15 prime ministers, but only six of them served as senior ministers. This included the first three decades (1947-77) in which only the leaders of Congress became Prime Ministers.
Here are some of the periods that witnessed a PM surge that did not last long.
1977-80:
When Indira Gandhi lost the elections in 1977, the anti-Congress forces united to form a government under Morarji desai and then Chaudhary Charan Singh. Even though the opposition was able to get the vote against the incumbency, they could not hold together, leading to two PMs in three years. Finally, internal disputes made Indira return to power in 1980.
1989-1991:
After Rajiv Gandhi’s gross majority in 1984, former Congressman VP Singh was able to change the mood against Congress on the issue of corruption in the 1989 Lok Sabha elections. But this period also witnessed problems similar to those of 1977. The personal ambitions of top political leaders and internal differences between Singh, Chaudhary Devi Lal and Chandrashekar saw two prime ministers in 18 months precipitating another election in 1991.
1996-98:
The 1996 elections saw the BJP come of age in national politics. This forced the regional parties and Congress to put aside their differences to keep the BJP out of power. However, the United Front government was in power with the support of Congress. India saw two more prime ministers on HD Deve Gowda and IK Gujral in the span of two years before another election in 1998.
So what are the odds that political leaders will have a practical chance in the Prime Minister’s chair?
Regional festivals: easier but shorter
Perhaps the easiest way to get to the prime minister’s presidency is the regional route. This route has allowed leaders of parties with less than 100 deputies to occupy the seat of prime minister. But if history is something to go through, instability is your biggest problem. The prime ministers of the regional parties have not lasted more than two years. This is mainly because the PM has to make the balancing act between managing internal differences between the actors that are part of its political front and keeping the support of a national party intact. This often leads to friction with any of the groups and has ultimately led to the downfall of all those governments.
Congress: The race begins and ends with a family
It doesn’t take much to realize the limitations of being a non-Gandhi family leader in the party. Nehru, Indira, Rajiv, even Manmohan singh It was often referred to as a “remote control” by Sonia Gandhi. But now the issue of leadership is not open for debate, so the doors for non-Gandhi family leaders are practically closed.
Given the current political scene in which a sick Sonia Gandhi remains in command due to infighting and the lack of determined leadership, it seems virtually impossible for them to change course before the next elections. Even if they did, the leadership debate would revolve around Rahul and Priyanka in all likelihood.
BJP: Constant but tough competition
That would leave the BJP as the best option in the current political scene. The decline of Congress is more or less directly proportional to the growth of BJP across the country. Under the duo of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, the party has managed to create the stronghold of the organization throughout the country. But the top spots appear to be filled for now and the chances of a vacancy appear bleak in the near future. Given Narendra Modi’s popularity, he could propel the BJP to another victory in 2024. The line of succession seems quite settled with the Union Interior Minister Amit Shah and the UP Chief Minister. Yogi Adityanath Waiting in the wings.
Can a greater role for regional parties create opportunities for CMs to become MPs?
Pros:
Given the current power play within the BJP and Congress, only regional parties can provide the platform for a strong CM to make the cut. But that would require an enormous amount of groundwork and coordination between regional parties. Bihar chief minister Nitish kumar was seen as a viable alternative after setting aside his political differences with RJD chief Lalu Yadav to win the 2015 assembly elections. But he switched sides to rejoin the NDA in 2017.
Cons:
We have seen individual efforts in the past from some senior ministers like K Chandrasekhar Rao (TRS) and Mamata Banerjee (TMC), but none have been able to support the entire opposition. In such a situation, it may seem like a chore for most leaders to get a decent shot at the top job. But what we do know is that being a successful prime minister has rarely helped a leader to occupy the prime minister’s chair for a reasonable period of time.
In the case of Narendra Modi, the famous Latin proverb ‘exceptio probat regulam de rebus non exceptis’ could be applied; this exception proves that the rule works in other circumstances.
It is interesting to note that none of the top 20 senior ministers with the longest service is part of the transition from CM to PM.
List of Prime Ministers who also served as Senior Ministers:
1. Morarji Desai was Bombay’s second chief minister from 1952 to 1956 before joining the Union Cabinet as Minister of Commerce and Industry. Later, as the leader of the Janata Party, Desai led an anti-Indira Gandhi alliance to win the general election. He was sworn in as prime minister in 1977 and remained in the highest position until 1979.
2. Chaudhary Charan Singh is the only other prime minister other than Narendra Modi who was sworn in as prime minister more than once. Singh was sworn in as prime minister twice for a period of almost 18 months between 1967-70. The farmer leader would become PM after Desai resigned and his tenure lasted almost six months.
3. Vishwanath Pratap Singh served as Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh between 1980 and 1982 before assuming the post of Union Minister of Commerce in 1983. Like Desai and Singh, he left Congress and would form the government with the support of the BJP and left-wing parties in 1989. His tenure was short-lived more than 11 months. before Chandrashekar succeeded him in November 1990.
4. PV Narasimha Rao served as a minister in different state governments before becoming Prime Minister of Andhra Pradesh between 1971-73. He moved into Delhi politics holding several important portfolios such as defense, interior and foreign affairs in the cabinet before becoming prime minister for a full term from 1991 to 1996. Rao is best remembered for his broad and bold economic reforms to make that the country gets back on track.
5. HD Deve Gowda was elected from the Holenarasipura constituency in Karnataka for six successive terms from 1962 to 1989. He was the state president of Janata Dal and became the prime minister of Karnataka from 1994-1996. The general elections of 1996 saw the union of regional parties to form the government in the Center with the support of Congress. Deve Gowda turned out to be an unlikely consensus candidate and served as prime minister for nearly 11 months between 1996-97.
6. Narendra Modi became the prime minister of Gujarat in 2001 after the central leadership of the BJP considered that Keshubhai Patel could not stop the electoral fall of the BJP in the local body and the assembly by elections. Modi proved his leadership skills with quick rehabilitation work after the 2001 earthquake and came to power successfully after the Godhra riots in 2002. He then won the 2007 and 2012 elections on the platform of Gujarati development and pride before become the Prime Minister in 2014.
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