The indirect profit and collateral damage law applies to both life and politics. The twin canons posit that Samudra Manthan by-products are not necessarily awarded to contestants. The shake can benefit even non-participants and spectators.
Anna Hazare, for example, had the right apolitical credentials to lead an anti-corruption campaign. The movement demolished many governments. Passersby had appropriated the profits emanating from the dharna India Against Corruption in Jantar Mantar before Hazare returned and finally settled in his village in Marathwada. The BJP vastly outperformed Congress in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Arvind Kejriwal pulverized Sheila Dikshit. Kiran Bedi became a BJP candidate in Delhi. She was later sent to Puducherry as Lieutenant Governor.
Between 2005 and 2012, Congress climbed the ladder with an aggressive launch to win back Uttar Pradesh under Rahul Gandhi and Digvijaya Singh. The large group built the fire and stirred the pot. On one occasion, Mayawati and the BSP, with a stronger organizational structure, pushed the anti-incumbents to play home with a clear majority. Five years later, in 2012, despite another determined bet, Akhilesh Yadav lunged forward to hit the tape.
The law of indirect gains works best if the disaffection is caused by someone inside. The accusations sound more convincing. In Jharkhand last year, for example, veteran Saryu Roy waited in Delhi to have his ticket approved for the assembly polls. Without any guarantees from the leadership, he threw the gauntlet to challenge CM Raghubar Das from Jamshedpur.
Roy won as an independent candidate against the prime minister. The political damage he inflicted on the BJP catapulted Hemant Soren to an absolute majority with the allied Congress in Jharkhand.
In the Bihar elections, Chirag Paswan made a Saryu Roy to Nitish Kumar. The jury is still out in media circles on whether Paswan’s scion rebellion against Nitish Kumar is of his own free will, or if he is articulating what others in the alliance could not. The next cabinet expansion in the Center will put an end to this suspense. However, the political leadership on both sides of the divide did not create any confusion about the turn of events.
Beyond the clarity, the relentless bombardment and accusations of scams and administrative incompetence, coming from someone who continued to be part of the NDA at the Center, is more damaging.
In fact, Chirag throughout the campaign was far more insulting and personal in attacking Nitish Kumar than opposition leader Tejashwi Yadav. The BJP defended Nitish Kumar’s record as CM and argued that the head of JD (U) would be the prime minister even if he won fewer seats than the saffron party.
Was the clarification born from the possibility that the BJP emerged as the largest party in the alliance despite contending for fewer seats?
The premise is based on the political logic that the LJP would only harm the JD (U) while the BJP would escape unscathed.
Saryu Roy set out to defeat Raghubar Das in Jharkhand. He won his election. But in the process, the BJP veteran inflicted far greater damage on the party than he once helped take root in the tribal state.
Bihar’s politics for the past two decades has been governed by a triad system in which Lalu Yadav won the unwavering support of 30 percent of the electorate. The upper caste remained mainly with the BJP, while Nitish Kumar contributed a share of 15 to 20 percent of the vote.
Of the three, any two poles that came together were to gather enough votes to relegate the third player to the margins or the opposition.
Chirag Paswan, conscious or not, has tried to break this status quo. It can emerge as a key actor in state politics only if the old order gives way to the new. He has toned down and bruised Nitish Kumar into being a junior associate of the BJP. This will have a cascading effect on state and national politics in the coming days, although the LJP itself has ended up with only one MLA in the assembly.
According to the law of indirect profit and loss, BJP is the net winner and Nitish Kumar the net loser.
Paswan Junior prepared for this pick knowing full well that he is not in a 20-20 match. Instead, he has gone on strike for 2025.
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