CSDS-Lokniti’s pre-poll poll for the Bihar elections, released last week, generated buzz with its main number: a 38% vote share distribution for the Bharatiya Janata Party’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) ( BJP), the Janata Dal (United), or JD (U), and 32% for the Mahagathbandhan of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Congress and the three left-wing parties, before the three-phase elections starting on 28 October.
Unlike most other polls, all of the Lokniti data is available to researchers, and a careful reading of the results, along with previous Lokniti polls, other election statistics, and expert opinion, suggests that insight is required. more nuanced to understand the current state of playing in the Bihar contest.
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Pre and post survey surveys changed dramatically in Bihar in 2015
The Lokniti survey was conducted between October 10 and 17. By then, the campaigns had not gathered momentum. If the 2015 Lokniti poll is any indication, the political mood in the state may change dramatically during the course of the campaign. Lokniti’s pre-poll 2015 poll had actually given the NDA a four percentage point lead against a projected 38% vote share for the then-large alliance of RJD, JD (U), and Congress, which emerged triumphant, but whose rule fell when Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) left his fold and joined the BJP in 2017.
See Table 1: Lokniti pre-poll post-vote and actual voting quotas in 2015
Local competitions could play a key role in the result
The decision of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) to compete outside the NDA and direct its entire attack against Nitish Kumar instead of the BJP has emerged as the biggest ‘X factor’ in these elections. The Lokniti survey results and the LJP’s past electoral performance underscore the importance of this factor.
Among the questions asked in the Lokniti polls, there is one about whether a voter is willing to change their political choice reported in the poll on Election Day. The proportion of respondents who say they could do so has increased by four percentage points to 14% in the 2020 pre-survey survey compared to 2015.
Another question that has been asked in the survey is about the determining factor (party, local candidate or leading ministerial candidate) behind the voting decision. While party affiliation is the main reason for NDA and Mahagathbandhan supporters, it is the local candidate who appears to be driving support for the LJP in the elections.
See Table 2: Lokniti 2020 pre-vote Reason to support a party
Can the LJP act as a spoiler for the JD (U)?
Of the 136 candidates presented by the LJP, 113 have presented themselves against the JD (U). The JD (U) has presented 115 candidates in these elections. The LJP has also presented candidates in the seven electoral districts of the assembly (AC) where the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) participates. The JD (U) had assigned these ACs to HAM from its own share of 122 ACs. An AC analysis of the results of Lok Sabha 2014; the only time that the JD (U) challenged an election on its own, it shows that the JD (U) had performed better in the CC.AA.s that the LJP is contesting this time compared to those where it has not presented candidates. This suggests that the LJP is able to chip away at the JD (U) support base.
See Table 3: JD (U) performance in AC that the LJP is contesting and not contesting this time in 2014
The anti-incumbency and identity matrix
While Nitish Kumar’s popularity as Prime Minister in the 2020 pre-poll poll (31%) has dropped by roughly nine percentage points compared to the 2015 post-poll poll, it is actually four percentage points higher. higher than in the previous survey of 2015. -Telephone survey. A social group breakdown of the concern response suggests that these findings could be driven more by identity than by actual government record. The proportion of respondents who want Nitish Kumar to have another chance to be prime minister is the highest among other backward classes (OBC), excluding Yadavs and the upper castes. The first is a category that includes the Kurmi caste itself and Kumar’s Extremely Backward Classes (EBC), a political constituency he has consciously cultivated during his three terms in power.
The upper castes are known to be the central support base of the BJP in Bihar, which is fighting in elections with Kumar as the prime ministerial candidate. Yadavs and Muslims, known to be the RJD’s core base of support, have the lowest response for incumbency and the highest response against incumbency.
See Table 4: Ownership response by social group
In a Policy Research Center debate on October 20, Jeffrey Witsoe, an anthropologist who has worked extensively in Bihar, and Sajjan Kumar, an independent researcher, described EBC’s support for Nitish Kumar as part of the continuing historical turmoil in OBC policy in the state. While Lalu Prasad enjoyed the fruits of OBC’s consolidation in the 1990s, his Yadav dominance policy led to discontent and a breakdown in the RJD’s OBC lower base of support, something that was highlighted in Theory of Numbers on October 21.
Three factors that will shape the Bihar contest
As the campaign gains momentum, three factors could influence Bihar’s results.
If the BJP sharpens its attack on the LJP or expels it from the NDA in the center, it could spark a surge in support for the NDA among upper caste and programmed caste voters, especially non-Paswan subcastes. . Failure to do this could lead to further fragmentation in the NDA voting, especially in the Autonomous Communities where the JD (U) is contesting.
The Lokniti poll shows that the proportion of undecided voters among the poorest, illiterate (15%) or Mushars and Mahadalits (14%) is the highest. These sections are more likely to be driven by welfare schemes rather than government jobs, which is what the RJD seems to have turned into its biggest problem at the moment.
The third phase, which has the Seemanchal sub-region with a high Muslim population, will see the competition between Mahagathbandhan and the smaller alliance that also has Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) of Asadudding Owaisi for all of India. Unless the Mahagathbandhan is able to establish a perception that it has clear leadership over the NDA in the first two phases, the AIMIM could make a dent in the Muslim support base of the Mahagathbandhan. The perception of whether the NDA faces a serious risk of loss will also be important for one more reason. Muslims have reported the greatest uncertainty (some chance) or reluctance (no chance) to stand to vote. This number is 17% for Muslims compared to just 9% for the upper castes and the Yadavs.
(Vijdan Mohammad Kawoosa contributed data analysis for the story)
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