Updated: June 22, 2020 1:42:25 pm
Army personnel offer a gun salute to martyr Rajesh Orang during his funeral on Friday 19 June 2020 in his native village Belgoria in Birbhum district of West Bengal. Orang was among the twenty Indian Army soldiers who died in skirmishes with Chinese soldiers in the Galvan valley of Ladakh. (PTI photo)
Are India and China at the beginning of a new and controversial era? so it seems. In Chapter 1, Chinese troops secretly traveled a few kilometers into Indian territory – without being detected – and captured key points in the Galvan Valley, Hot Springs, and Pangong Tso. The face-to-face incursions that took place on May 5-6 were brought to light. In Chapter 2, on the night of 15–16 June, Chinese soldiers clashed with Indian soldiers, killing 20 people; 80 soldiers were injured and 10 were taken prisoner and released on 18 June.
The India-China border – or Line of Actual Control (LAC) – has been boiling since the 1962 war, but it is the first time since 1975 that life was lost. Keeping peace for 45 years was not an achievement. Under Mr. Modi’s supervision, that quiet peace has been broken.
A false tale
The intimacy with which the Modi government had betrayed him in the last six years was absolutely wrong. Mr. Narendra Modi, who was then Chief Minister of Gujarat, was a favorite of the Chinese, who hosted him on four occasions; Mr. Modi, unlike any other Prime Minister, visited China on five occasions, underlining the special relationship between the two countries; And that there was a special chemistry between Mr. Modi and Mr. Xi reflected in Wuhan (2018) and Mahabalipuram (2019) – all of which were part of a false narrative. On 15–16 June the bubble burst.
After the bloody struggle and loss of life and property, India kept on smoldering. The MEA made a weak statement, stating that “… a violent face resulted from an attempt by the Chinese side to unilaterally change the status quo … All Indian activities were in favor of the LAC and it is expected of China”. The Chinese counter was fast and aggressive. The PLA said that “the sovereignty of the Galvan Valley region has always belonged to China” and China’s foreign minister called on India to “stop all inflammatory actions”. The Indian side should not underestimate China’s strong will to preserve territorial integrity.
Intelligence failure
There are several theories about the way China acted in May this year. The scale of infiltration indicates careful planning over several months – perhaps going back to August 2019 when the Modi government changed the constitutional position of Jammu and Kashmir. The government either ignored or brushed aside (more likely later) the fact that China remained in possession of a large tract of land in Ladakh over which it claimed sovereignty; It is constructing a belt and road connect from Pakistan via Gilgit-Baltistan which is a part of Ladakh; And that India objected to building a feeder road to connect with the DBO road on the Indian side of the LAC. China would also have noted the Home Minister’s statement that Aksai Chin would be part of India.
It is a thinking that India did not doubt China’s intentions. If anyone should blame for India’s decency, it is our external intelligence agencies as well as defense intelligence agencies who have boots on the ground in Ladakh. In a sense, it is an unforgivable iteration of Kargil, and a regular inextricably out of space, especially in the era of satellites and images and photographs. The difference between Kargil and the Galvan Valley is that unfavorable Pakistan is not Pakistan, but China.
In Depsang (2013), India taught China a lesson and China retreated completely. In Doklam (Bhutan, 2017), China learned a valuable lesson about India’s strengths and weaknesses. India celebrated the return of some Chinese troops from the triangular junction, but was humbly introduced into the structures built by China on the Doklam plateau, and the Chinese are still bound in the Doklam plateau to this day!
Mr. Modi’s error
The Chinese are applying the Doklam lesson to the Gokwan Valley and, ultimately, will apply it to the area between Pangong Tso and Finger 4 (LAC according to China) and Finger 8 (LAC according to India). There was an opportunity to avoid the loss of Galvan Valley. Soon after the core commander-level talks on 6 June, Mr Modi should dial Mr Xi and persuade Mr Xi to agree to a common readout by both parties, supporting the outcome of the negotiations. Perhaps the tragedy of June 15-16 would not have happened. This was a grave error from Mr. Modi.
Mr. Modi dreams that the 21st century will be the China-India-led Asian century. It is clear that Mr. Modi did not take the right measure of Mr. Xi. Whether Mr. Xi has measured Modi correctly is a matter of speculation. The two leaders cannot be close friends again. They can still do business and sign one-on-one agreements the way Mr. Narasimha Rao, Mr. Vajpayee and Dr. Manmohan Singh did with his counterparts in China and maintained peace on the 4,056 km border, including LAC.
It is certain that there will be no more ‘pinnacles’ or ‘swings’. It will be just hard-nosed talks. It would be useful for Modi to recall what Saint Thiruvalluvar said 2,000 years ago: “Strength of fortune, strength of someone, strength of opponent, strength of ally, weigh all these and decide your action” ( Kural 471).
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