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In the 10 days between May 1 and May 10 (both included), six states accounted for 91% of the average daily Covid-19 deaths in India. Two of them, Maharashtra and Gujarat, accounted for 66%.
The six states accounted for 86% of all deaths in the country from the pandemic as of May 10, and 64% of all cases.
There are states that record more cases than some of these states, but in terms of the number of deaths from Covid-19, these are the top six. Delhi and Tamil Nadu see more cases a day, but on average they have seen fewer deaths in the 10-day period considered. Either way you look at it, that is a reflection of the quality of the public health system in these states: they are receiving more cases but fewer people are dying. To be sure, there has been some confusion over the number of deaths in Delhi, with hospital records showing one number and the government bulletin showing another. But with a new protocol that requires hospitals to report deaths on time, this should happen (see page 2).
Gujarat, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh are outliers in terms of mortality rate: theirs is much higher than the national one (Gujarat is the highest). Maharashtra, despite accounting for almost a third of all cases in India, accounts for just over a third of all deaths from Covid-19 in the country; its mortality rate is only marginally higher than the national one.
Three of the six states, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, also test fewer people per million a day than the national daily average.
As India emerges from the blockade, albeit in stages, it would be good to focus on the states that account for the majority of deaths and those that are not testing enough. With a focus on mitigation from prevention, it clearly has, even as the health ministry continues to adhere to its claim about the absence of community broadcast in its briefings, public health systems should be able to treat those who require hospitalization and bring down the number of deaths. Generalized testing will help policy makers and public health workers measure the extent of the prevalence of coronavirus disease, protect the most vulnerable (people over 65 or 70), and track the disease’s progress. in the interior of India, you are experiencing an influx of returning migrant workers.
As mentioned in this column yesterday, it appears that domestic flights will soon be restarted: a detailed note on the guidelines for flying, once the closure is complete, was completed on Tuesday. It makes flying cumbersome and sets inconvenient restrictions, but at this stage, just the prospect of being able to fly again should please people who have a pressing need to travel (see page 1).
The note mentions that the government contact tracking app, Aarogya Setu, will be mandatory for travelers; Earlier Tuesday, Railways said the app would also be mandatory for rail passengers (see page 4). Rail services from Delhi to and from 15 other cities restarted on Tuesday (see page 4). Flights are expected to start next week, although there is no confirmation of this yet.
The biggest step toward a return to normality came Tuesday night when Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in a speech to the nation, said his government would announce a worthwhile package for the economy in the coming days. ~ 20 lakh crore. That is just under 10% of GDP, and while the details are awaited (and need to be analyzed), if at least part is in the form of direct payments, some, credit guarantees, and the rest, government spending, should help. But more about this tomorrow.
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