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Life returned to normal with long lines outside liquor stores in most of the country, which is as understandable as it is avoidable. There have been many times of need to drink in the past 40 days. And there will be many more in the next two weeks, maybe even later.
One of them was on Monday, with the release of the Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index by IHS Markit. This is essentially a measure of manufacturing activity and, unsurprisingly, fell sharply in April to 27.4, the lowest since data began to be tracked 15 years ago. It is also the first time that the index has entered the contraction zone in almost 11 quarters. A reading greater than 50 indicates expansion, and a reading less than that contraction. And the launch of the IHS Markit spoke of both supply-side and demand-side disruptions and job losses, which is not a good image (see page 11).
Monday was chaotic, and while much of it was due to the crowds outside the liquor stores, it wasn’t all that way. There were too many vehicles on the roads and too many people outside the stores. For 40 days, everyone has been waiting to breathe out, but this great collective exhalation may end up being counterproductive to India’s efforts to curb the spread of the coronavirus disease. After all, we know the connection between exhalation and the Sars-CoV-2 virus that causes Covid-19.
And this is the situation during a gradual exit; Technically, the close is still active until May 17. The mind is speechless at what might have been if the government had announced a complete exit from the closure on May 3, as some demanded that it do so. If the gradual exit, and the complete one that will follow, is going to work, then people will be required to be disciplined and follow the rules. India does not have the luxury of waiting for the number of Covid-19 cases to start to decline before opening.
Late on Monday morning in Delhi, the furious noise of impatient car horns replaced the birdsong that has been in full swing (it’s also the breeding season for many birds) for the past 40 days . However, in the early afternoon, at least some of the liquor stores were closed by local authorities (the district magistrates), citing overcrowding, lack of social distancing, and the fact that not everyone in line was wearing a mask (see page 2)
In some ways, the PMI data and the rebel crowds outside the liquor stores represent the dilemma before the government. You can’t afford to continue the block because the cure was starting to hurt almost as much as the disease. India has yet to calculate the economic impact of zero sales for many products, tens of thousands of small businesses collapsing, millions of jobs lost, tens of millions of people pushed back into the same poverty from which they had managed to escape just a few years ago. years, but it will surely be high.
No country should have to choose between lives and livelihoods, the reason why the understanding of article 21 of the Constitution that guarantees the right to life has grown to include livelihoods, but this is one of the compensations that the countries have to do. in his political response to the pandemic. As this column has pointed out, Sweden, with approximately twice as many deaths as India, but with only half the cases, sees its own response, of not closing, as a success, an opinion that this writer does not share.
The importance of protecting both is the reason why an aid and stimulus package for companies is necessary. India was expected to announce one in late March. It is early May and we are still waiting.
