By the end of October, we were supposed to have at least some data from the phase 3 trials of the Pfizer / BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine. That has been delayed (not long, according to some reports) even as it is becoming clearer than deadlines for most of us (and this includes Big Pharma executives, government officials, healthcare experts, analysts, and journalists) they have in mind because the availability of the first Covid-19 vaccines are too aggressive, perhaps even impossible.
- It is becoming increasingly clear that the timelines most of us have in mind for the availability of the first Covid-19 vaccines are too aggressive. Experts now say a mid-2021 schedule for the vaccine is more realistic
It could well turn out that I am wrong, it has happened before, but many experts agree that a timeline for mid-2021 for the vaccine is more realistic. Then there is the question of capacity and availability, and the challenges of distributing a vaccine. And at least for the first vaccines that will be available, there is a very high chance that people who are lucky enough to get an early injection will need a second vaccine before everyone in the world has received the first.
Which brings us to the question I’ve been addressing: What is Plan B?
Last Wednesday (Oct 28), he provided an answer (actually, in my opinion, the only one). On that day, the Australian city of Melbourne emerged from a lockdown that lasted 112 days. It was a confinement that involved refuge-in-place rules; closing of most stores, restaurants and gyms; bar at social gatherings, indoors and outdoors, including weddings; and restrictions to travel outside the city (people cannot travel more than 5 km from their homes).
- Australia and New Zealand have relied on lockdowns to crush the virus’ resurgence; and both have been relatively successful. Now, most European nations are imposing strict blockades to cope with an almost debilitating second wave.
Other parts of the state of Victoria also saw lockdowns, but none as strict as Melbourne. The city’s strict lockdown (which was progressively eased) was controversial, but, imposed in the wake of a second wave of cases in Melbourne and Victoria, it was successful, with the number of cases reduced to zero last week. It is not just Australia that has relied on lockdowns to crush the virus; its neighbor New Zealand has, too, in what its recently re-elected Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, calls the country’s “go hard, go early” strategy.
Now that most European nations impose strict lockdowns (France’s is almost total) to cope with an almost debilitating second wave of the pandemic, more people are beginning to look to the Australia and New Zealand approach (sure, help both are relatively remote). , sparsely populated and islands). Not long ago, many of these leaders would not even consider a second lockdown. Boris Johnson of the UK, for example, said that a second blockade in the country would be “disastrous”, especially in terms of its impact on the economy; Over the weekend, he announced a strict four-week period, as it became clear that the country’s health system was just weeks away from drowning in cases.
- However, schools are likely to remain open in most of Europe. Research shows that in regions where there is no community transmission, it is okay to open schools, especially for young children. It is older children who are most vulnerable and could also end up transmitting the virus more
Interestingly, schools, even in France and the UK, both countries are seeing far more cases in the second round than in the first; the seven-day average of new cases in France is 43,000, about 10 times more than during the peak of the first wave; in the UK it is 22,000, about four times; it will remain open during closing. And when Melbourne began easing restrictions, schools were one of the first things it opened. Research conducted in various countries shows that in regions where there is no community transmission (or limited community transmission, a term preferred by the Indian Ministry of Health), it is okay to open schools, especially for young children (this would mean primary school and secondary) because they are unlikely to spread the virus. It is older children who are most vulnerable and could also end up transmitting the virus more. But I digress; the debate over whether schools are safe or not could fill a full edition of the Hindustan Times.
The only viable Plan B, the only way to manage a sharp increase in cases that come with a new wave of pandemic, is a lockdown. Nobody likes lockdowns, but they seem to work.
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