There is a week to go before Unlock 5.0, which some believe will be the last phase of the restart of activities that were halted when the country entered a lockdown on March 25 to curb the spread of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19). The confinement lasted 68 days, until May 31; some establishments and activities were allowed to restart even in this period. Since June 1, there have been four sets of guidelines issued by the home ministry, Unlock 1.0 to Unlock 4.0, each detailing a new dimension of openness. Restaurants have opened, metro services have resumed in all but two Indian cities that have metro services, the number of scheduled flights has increased, as has the number of people attending offices (although many remain working from home). The latest iteration of Nomura India’s Business Resumption Index was at 82.3 for the week ending September 20 (where 100 reflects pre-pandemic level business activity). This is up from 81.3 from the previous week, so the index is clearly on the up. This is the highest index (which was stuck in the 70s for intervening months, after falling to 40 during the hard lock) since the lockdown. Google’s mobility trends for workplaces, based on the latest iteration, are 26% below baseline, again an improvement (they were 30.4% below baseline in June) .
The guidelines for Unlock 5.0 could come later this week. They occur in the context of a high number of new cases daily (India continues to lead the world in number of new cases, although Europe is in the midst of a very strong second wave of infections), but also at a time when most states have come out of lockdown mode, at least for most establishments and activities. The big announcement everyone is waiting for, or not, is about the reopening of schools. Lockdown 4.0 allowed high school students to attend school for up to a few hours a day, in rotation (with teachers also rotated), with parental permission, and for “guidance” or “counseling” only. The rationale was that these were important school years and students needed some interaction with their teachers. This was not exactly a “school reopening” as some insisted on calling it. Unlock 5.0 guidelines will likely allow more of this (perhaps for more classes or longer durations). With almost half the academic year over, the guidelines are also likely to allow for a more formal reopening of schools. After all, online classes put underprivileged students at a disadvantage, although a recent ruling by the Delhi high court that schools in the capital must provide devices and connectivity, and be reimbursed by the central and state government, It could serve as a precedent in other parts of the country. country too.
I’d rather governments focus on this (devices and connectivity for all students; and a proper online curriculum to get started) than rushing to reopen schools. Cases are yet to peak in India, and experience from around the world suggests that school (and university) reopenings do lead to outbreaks of infections.
On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal, citing a study by researchers at the University of North Carolina, Indiana University, the University of Washington and Davidson College, which said it would soon be published on the medRxiv prepress server (not was at the time of this writing) reported that the US saw 3,200 more cases per day due to the reopening of universities. The study covered the period from mid-July to mid-September and tracked mobile phone GPS data to measure infection rates in and around universities at two times: before students arrived and after they did. . The highest increase was registered in universities with physical or face-to-face classes, and the lowest in those with online classes. The UK reopened schools in September, but with a sharp increase in cases (a natural consequence of the reopening, and not just schools); Truancy and partial school closings have increased over the course of the month. The UK, like continental Europe, is in the middle of a second wave with the seven-day average of daily cases just 1,000 below the highs last seen in May.
Policymakers in India have before them the case study of how Covid-19 stirred (and ultimately disrupted) the monsoon session of Parliament before them; it would be unfortunate if they made students face risks that legislators themselves want to avoid.
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