On Friday, as reported by the Hindustan Times on the same day, India crossed the US seven-day high average in terms of daily coronavirus cases, according to worldometers.info and the New York Times database. The United States saw its seven-day high average in mid-July; India saw him in late August. An average of seven days is more representative than just the number of one day. Represents spikes, including those caused by reporting delays. For example, for most countries in the world, the horizon of daily case numbers (represented in bars) shows a drop every five days, during the weekend. In India, even tests are reduced on Sundays.
From mid-to-late July, the US has been at its second low, dropping nearly 25,000 cases daily. India’s seven-day average of daily cases has at least doubled since mid-July. And unlike the US, the country hasn’t seen any stalemate. The progress of the pandemic in India has been on a steadily rising curve, definitely slowed by the 68-day lockdown imposed by the federal government, but still increasing. And that shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Why Today’s GDP Figures Matter
It shouldn’t be for four reasons. One, India is trying more than it used to. At the end of June, the country averaged 210,525 tests per day, according to HT’s panel (the number is, again, a seven-day average). At the end of July, this number increased to 501,370 tests per day on average. And at the end of August (as of Saturday), this number was 881,345 tests per day. This is a significant increase (although India is still lagging behind in terms of tests per million people compared to many other countries), and when you test more, it is natural that you will find more cases. The average positivity rate (again, a weekly average) has remained in the corridor of 8-12% in this period, going from 8.87% at the end of June to 10.4% at the end of July. It was at 8.14% as of Saturday. I have always ruled out the national positivity rate for two reasons: disparities in testing intensity between states; And the fact that many states have not seen their positivity rates follow the established pattern (as the tests continually rise, an increase, then a long plateau, and finally a drop) indicates that they are not testing anywhere near the numbers that they should.
Vaccine Diplomacy in India’s Outreach Plan
Two, India is opening up, and as countries open up, they will see an increase in daily cases (the big question is how effectively they quell these outbreaks). Given the size and population of India, it definitely didn’t make sense for India to wait, as countries in Europe did, for the number of cases to start to decline before opening up. That would have meant waiting until the end of the year, perhaps, something the economy could have paid poorly for. The Home Office has issued guidelines for what it calls Unlocking 4.0, the fourth stage of India’s gradual reopening, and welcome as this is from a livelihoods and economic standpoint, it will result in some outbreaks.
Three, and regular readers will recognize the refrain, India is not trying hard enough. Only when the proper tests are done can infected people be identified and isolated, and those exposed to them traced. Fourth, the ability of a country to keep the number of cases of coronavirus disease under control once it facilitates their confinement is directly proportional to its ability and willingness to enforce measures such as the use of masks and social distancing (and also directly proportional to the willingness of his people to be disciplined about both). India, unfortunately, lags behind in this regard, as are other countries, including the United States, but other people’s mess is other people’s problem.
India’s peak still appears to be a long way off, which means that the number of daily cases will continue to rise. While the country’s low fatality rate, often touted by health administrators, is definitely a cause for joy, with the current 1.8%, it is worth noting that 80,000 cases a day, today, will translate into 1,440 deaths, within weeks.
.
