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India will overtake China in terms of the number of cases of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) sometime on Friday. China had 82,929 cases on Thursday afternoon and India 78,810, according to worldometers.info. HT dash shows that India ended the day with81,859 cases. But the pandemic has followed completely different paths in the two countries. For example, the number of deaths in India remains low: on Thursday afternoon, it was 2,564. The corresponding number for China was 4,633.
The difference in mortality rates highlights what I said earlier (and more than once). Covid-19 does not appear to be causing as many deaths in India as in other countries. In fact, according to data from the Union Ministry of Health, on Monday, when the total number of cases in India was 70,713, of which 46,003 were active (according to the HT panel), only 2.37% of patients were in a condition severe enough to require intensive care unit (ICU) treatment, only 1.82% need oxygen and only 0.41% support ventilation
That fits with what we already know: that many people infected with Sars-Cov-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, are asymptomatic, and that many people who show symptoms have mild infections.
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This is undoubtedly a subjective classification, which means that patients do not require oxygen, ventilators, or treatment in critical care units; Anecdotally, some of those with mild cases have suffered from high fever, severe body pain, and are always tired (meaning that you should probably stop using the term mild).
Two other things this column has returned to regularly are testing and reporting data.
How and when data related to infections and deaths is critical: helps experts track the spread and understand patterns; and shapes the health policy response. India has yet to do this well. HT began maintaining its own dashboard using information from covid19india.org and state government health departments after discovering that data from the Union health ministry was delayed.
Also read: The highest peak in a single day when Delhi Covid cases cross 8,000
But it emerges that even at the state level, there is a considerable delay in reporting cases (due to delayed test results) and deaths (because hospitals don’t always do the necessary paperwork). For example, almost all42the deaths reported by Delhi in the last three days are old (and not deaths in the last 24 hours). Unless these data are updated regularly and transparently, there is little point in talking about spikes in cases or deaths.
In testing, after a slow start and attempts to defend the indefensible, India is finally testing aggressively. On Friday, he crossed the 2 million mark in tests. This translates to almost 1,540 tests per million population.
The health ministry has also asked states to run randomized tests, some pooled, every week and in every district. As India opens (should, starting May 17); while migrant workers return to their home districts; as rail services restart; And as life returns to normal, it is important to keep testing. Everything indicates that the number of cases will continue to increase, and perhaps increase even more rapidly as we open, but that should not be cause for alarm as long as the number of deaths remains low.
Again, as this column has repeatedly said, the only number to watch is the daily death toll.
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