After a gradual increase in Covid-19 cases in India between June and September, new cases of coronavirus infections started to decline from the third week of September. Unlike in European countries or the US, the coronavirus spike in India happened much later. But what could be the probable causes of the drop in new cases and will this drop continue in the period of festivals and winters? News18 explains:
Current scenario
As of October 26, India had registered 79,11,104 cumulative infections of which 6,55,935 were active infections and 71,34,769 people or 90.18 percent of all who were infected had recovered. However, India has also reported 1,19,057 deaths due to Covid-19. Only Brazil and the United States have registered a higher number of deaths.
On Monday, India had a fatality rate of 1.5 percent, the lowest since March 22, and 14 states, including Bihar, Assam, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan, had a fatality rate of less than 1 percent. , according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.
Peak and decline
Unlike many European countries, new confirmed cases in India increased gradually over a period of almost four months between May and September and recorded a faster rate between August and September.
On August 17, the country reported 55,079 cases and the seven-day moving average of cases was 62,010. A month later, on September 16, the country reported 97,894 cases, which was the peak of new cases registered daily. The seven-day moving average on September 16 was 93,199. New confirmed cases began to decline as of September 16, and as of October 25, the seven-day moving average of new cases was 51,384.
Probable causes behind the decline
So far, the government has not offered any official explanation for the decline in confirmed new infections across the country despite being asked about it at weekly press conferences. However, experts have offered their own assessments and clues about India ‘passing the peak’ of infections.
According to some experts, it appears that a large population of susceptible people, especially in urban areas in India, appears to have been exposed to the virus, leading to a decrease in transmission.
“The picture is of a disease that has largely depleted its supply of susceptible people in major cities in India, where it has stopped growing,” said Gautam Menon, professor of physics and biology at Ashoka University.
However, he warned that the infection is still spreading to the far reaches of the country at a slower and intermittent rate. “It is for this reason that happiness from the decline may be premature. There are still a large number of susceptible people in mainly rural areas of India who remain at risk of contracting Covid-19. Rural India sees relatively smaller fractions of people with comorbidities such as diabetes or cardiovascular disease compared to cities in India. Such comorbidities exacerbate the risk of adverse outcomes from infection and disease, “he added.
A section of epidemiologists and medical experts has criticized the reliance on rapid antigen tests, which are less accurate compared to molecular tests, and said current trends could reflect the intensification of rapid antigen testing. .
Menon said that although this was possible, a drop in deaths, hospital admissions suggests that the decline is real. “The question would be if we end the festival season without a sharp increase in the number of cases. We should know if the festival season has had an impact on the consequent increase in the number of infected in about 2-3 weeks, certainly at the end of November.
Retired virologist Dr. T Jacob John and former professor at Christian Medical College, Vellore, said relying more on antigen testing will not be enough to explain the decline in cases. “It can change the shape of the downward curve of infection, but the size of the tests performed has value, even when taking into account the underreporting of cases. The massiveness of the data compensates to some extent for any inaccuracies in our infection data. So the trend is pointing in the right direction, ”he said.
The decline of the epidemic, he added, is also a natural phenomenon and said that those who were careful not to become infected, those who live in remote villages and the elderly protected in families remain susceptible to infection.
Has the virus containment strategy changed?
The union health ministry has maintained that despite the decrease in new cases, prevention, testing, monitoring, treatment and containment policies will continue. The Health Ministry warned people to avoid congregations within families during the festival period and advocated the use of masks.
He also said that with air pollution on the rise, people with respiratory complications should be especially careful about wearing masks and hand disinfection, as they are more vulnerable to infection.
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