COVID-19 numbers in India on the decline; experts explain what the reasons could be

Coronavirus cases in the country have seen some decline since last month. The decline has occurred regardless of the ease of travel restrictions and other activities that have begun to return to normal. What’s more interesting is that the government-appointed scientific committee that has been watching the growth trend of the coronavirus in India has stated that the viral outbreak peaked last month, without giving much information on what it is leading. the decrease in COVID-19 cases. Two committee members have provided some explanations about it, according to a report by The IE.

Citing a committee member, Professor Manindra Agrawal, the report says that some case studies have been conducted in the Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu region. The magazines indicated that nearly 70 percent of people infected with COVID-19 have stopped transmitting the viral infection to others. The virus was spreading through a small group of people also known as super-spreaders. Agrawal said that these super spreaders generally contract the infection in the early stages of the outbreak, adding that there is a chance these super spreaders will contract the infection earlier and have now become immune. Very few are left to transmit the viral infection to others. This could be a possible reason for India’s declining coronavirus numbers, Agrawal said.

It should be noted that super-spreaders are capable of infecting large numbers of people. Agrawal explained that the super spreaders (could be vegetable vendors) interact with many people in a single day, increasing the chances of transmission. Once they are removed or become unable to spread the infection, the new number of positive cases is automatically reduced.

Another committee member, Professor Gagandeep Kang, who is also an infectious disease expert and a professor at the Christian Medical College in Vellore, noted that with the restrictions imposed, people simply interact with those who belong to their close circle. Since there are not many interactions between random people (for example, on trains and buses), the transmission remains confined to the closed group. Kang further said that much remains unclear and more data is required to establish the motive. He said the decline is similar to what European countries experienced some time ago.

While a slowdown in the amount of COVID-19 growth is certainly a relief for many, Kang cautioned that people should still be wary of ongoing festivals, air pollution, and approaching winters.