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India is likely to see a spike in the number of active COVID-19 cases by the second week of May, and a decrease in the number of such cases may occur before the 3.0 shutdown comes to an end, a new study suggests. Indian.
Conducted by researchers at the Indian Institute of Science, Education and Research, Kolkata’s modeling study also predicts a death toll of 15,000-35,000 for India, although the researchers admitted that there were certain limitations to the study.
The most likely scenario in the IISER simulation predicts a peak of 60,000 active infections (with a possible upper limit of less than 135,000) early in the second week of May.
The number of probable deaths is predicted to be close to 15,000 with an upper limit of approximately 35,000, incorporating reasonable uncertainties into the model.
Like May 1, the model’s most likely scenario simulation predicts slightly higher numbers than observed. Over the past three days, the numbers are spiraling upward with the reporting of 3,900 cases on Tuesday and more than 2,500 cases the day before.
“It would be prudent to put more emphasis on the trends predicted by the model rather than the numbers. If the effectiveness of the current blockade and quarantine measures remain in place, then the model predicts a decrease in active infections by the third week of May.” . said IISER scientist Dibyendu Nandi, who led the team.
Nandi and colleagues at the Indian Space Science Center of Excellence at IISER have used their in-house data modeling and analysis capabilities to create the COVID-19 pandemic behavior model aimed at spreading awareness among the general public and targeting future policies related to it.
The IISER study finds that the current blockade is far from being efficient. However, it must continue beyond May 17 for the administration to control the pandemic scenario because without any restrictions things will get out of control.
Simulations in the non-blocking scenario show that the number of infected and deceased individuals would have increased rapidly and could have been unacceptably large.
Finally, almost all individuals susceptible to the disease (in the simulation that is assumed to be the entire population of India) could have become infected.
Even after incorporating the “collective immunity” factor, the number of infected individuals could have been 60% of the Indian population. This would have resulted not only in the highest number of novel coronavirus deaths 2019 in the world, but would paralyze the healthcare infrastructure.
“Our study demonstrates the importance of active containment, perhaps in the form of intensive testing, contact tracing, and isolation of infected people, even if the blockage itself relaxes a little,” Nandi said.
