The Center had appointed a 10-member committee, headed by NITI Aayog member VK Paul, to study the mathematical progression of the Covid-19 virus in India. The committee presented its report one day that the Union’s health minister, Harsh Vardhan, admitted the community transmission of Covid-19 in certain places in a limited number of states in the country.
The study sheds light on where India stands in its fight against Covid-19 and what lies ahead.
one. India may see an exponential increase of 26 lakh in cases in a month due to the festival season if precautions are not followed.
two. Kerala, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and West Bengal are still seeing an increase in the number of cases, while elsewhere the pandemic has stabilized.
3. A second wave of coronavirus in winter cannot be ruled out.
Also read: The possibility of a second wave of Covid-19 during winters cannot be ruled out: VK Paul from NITI Aayog
Four. The local lockdown is not effective now, but if there had been no lockdown in March-April, India’s total deaths could have surpassed 25 lakh in August. The death toll is now 1.14 lakh.
5. So far, only 30% of the population has developed immunity.
6. India hit the Covid-19 peak in September and is now on the downward slope.
7. The crisis is likely to end in February 2021. At that time, there could be 10.5 million cases.
8. Migrants didn’t make much of a difference in the number of infections overall.
9. We also need to be careful in the coming months due to the pollution in North India.
10. The curve flattens out and the early lockdown reinforced by a better equipped healthcare system helped flatten the curve.
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