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The blockade and the first measures, such as travel restrictions and active control of international passengers at airports, followed by surveillance and tracking of contacts that covered about 9.50,000 people, was the result of a strong coordinated network by the National Center for Disease Control with states, Niti Aayog member VK Paul said.
He added that although the full effects of the blockade were evident from April 6 onwards, they will continue to be seen until mid-May.
Citing data analysis by independent investigators, as well as official data from the health ministry, Dr. Paul, who also heads a trained committee on emergency response, said there were two key turning points, March 23 and April 6, when the impact of the measures taken by the government began to show. The first appointment was just before the closure took effect after the janata curfew on March 22. Shamika Ravi, a former member of the prime minister’s economic advisory council, posted some of the charts on Twitter.
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Dr. Paul said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s grand decision to impose the national blockade “proved to be very timely and beneficial,” as evidenced by the change in the growth trajectory of India’s Covid-19 cases. “The curve has started to flatten. If we had not made the decision to close the national closure, we would have already had around a lakh of Covid-19 cases, by a reasonable estimate. Now the outbreak is under control,” he said. said.
“If we go back to March 21, the cases doubled in about three days. A major turnaround came in March 23 … The direction changed and the doubling rate increased to around five. By then, we had already established restrictions travel and had created an environment of social estrangement. So the results were led by these measures, “said Dr. Paul. He did not, however, detail the measures that would apply after May 3 when the shutdown is scheduled to end.
In an apparent reference to the migrant worker movement immediately after the imposition of the closure and the spread caused by Tablighi Jamaat members that spread across the country, Dr. Paul said there were some riots in the middle and India fell back a bit. . “But as of April 6, the doubling time began to improve again. That was when the impact of the blockade began to appear after taking into account the 14-day incubation period,” he said.
According to the data presented by the NCDC, the doubling time of positive cases went from 5.2 days during March 24-30 to 4.2 during March 31 to April 6 and to 8.6 during April 14-20. Dr. Paul said that in the past three days, the average doubling rate had further improved to 10 days.
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Meanwhile, many districts have joined the list of areas without any new Covid-19 cases in 28 days and 14 days, respectively. The joint secretary of the Ministry of Health, Lav Agarwal, said in the last 28 days that up to 15 districts did not have a new case, while 80 districts did not report any new cases of coronavirus in the last 14 days.
He also said that in the 24-hour period from Thursday morning, 1,684 positive cases of Covid-19 were reported, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 23,077.
“A total of 4,748 people, which is 20.57% of the total number of cases, have been cured so far,” said Agarwal.
