Coronavirus numbers explained: most TN cases are from Chennai

Chennai has about 5,000 cases (Express photo: Srini Vasu)

Then passing Delhi, the number of new coronavirus cases in Tamil Nadu He seems poised to beat Gujarat too. Tamil Nadu discovered 716 new infections on Tuesday and now has 8,718 confirmed cases. Gujarat, the state with the second highest number of cases, it has 8904 with the addition of 362 new cases on Tuesday.

As has been happening every day, most of the new cases in Tamil Nadu come from Chennai, which now has nearly 5,000 cases. This is more than 55 percent of the total number of cases in the state. But Chennai is not alone in this. In several states, the majority of cases, more than 50 percent, are concentrated in just one or two cities. Mumbai represents more than 60 percent of all cases in Maharashtra While Ahmedabad has more than 70 percent of all cases in Gujarat. Indore in Madhya Pradesh and Kolkata in West Bengal are also in a similar situation (see box). These cities also account for a large proportion of deaths in the states.

This has already begun to test the health infrastructure of these cities. Mumbai, which has more than 10,000 active cases now, is running out of hospital beds to accommodate new patients. On Tuesday, some patients were found on waiting lists, as local authorities were quick to add more beds in public and private hospitals.

But from the point of view of controlling the spread of the disease, the concentration of cases in small areas it is not bad. It helps health authorities demarcate and isolate these areas, and try to normalize activities elsewhere. In any case, large urban centers are much better equipped with sanitary infrastructure. Smaller cities and rural areas would be overwhelmed much faster if faced with a large number of cases.

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On Tuesday, 3,532 new cases were discovered across the country, bringing the total number of confirmed infections to 74,276.

On Tuesday, 3,532 new cases were discovered across the country, bringing the total number of confirmed infections to 74,276. Of these, at least 24,385 people have already recovered and are therefore no longer in a position to transmit the disease to others. The number of deaths has reached 2415.

the relaxation in the closing rules of May 4, which has seen the resumption of many activities and the reduction of restrictions on the movement of people, until now has not had a great impact on the spread of the disease, as feared. A week after the relaxations were allowed, there are still no signs that there has been large increase in the number of cases.

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In the last ten days, there have been two days when a An abnormal spike in numbers was observed. On May 4, when daily increases were in the 2200 to 2500 range, more than 3800 cases were discovered. But that was attributed to adjustments made by Maharashtra and West Bengal, which added some previously untold cases. Last Sunday, there was another unusual increase when 4,370 new cases were reported. In the two days after that, however, daily increases have been reduced to approximately 3,600 each day.

the disease transmission rate – the number of people infected on average by a person already infected – has not shown any significant deviation in the last week. For the period beginning on April 13, when the first phase of the blockade ended, until May 10, this transmission rate, called the reproduction number, was 1.23, which means that each group of 100 infected people transmitted the disease to 123 more, on average. This is significantly lower than the number before the first closing phase began on March 24. At that time, it was estimated that 100 people transmitted the disease to at least 183 people on average.

But some states are seeing a rapid increase in the number. In addition to Tamil Nadu, there has been an increase in Odisha, despite the fact that the total number of cases is still modest compared to the five main states. On Tuesday, Odisha reported 101 cases, the highest so far. The state has 538 cases now, most of them concentrated in the five districts of Ganjam, Balasore, Jajpur, Khurda and Bhadrak. Almost all the cases discovered in Odisha in recent days are among migrant workers returning from other states, or their immediate contacts. Ganjam, the worst affected district, now has 210 cases.

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