Coronavirus numbers explained: more deaths than are counted in West Bengal

Coronavirus (COVID-19): It is very possible that the actual workload in West Bengal is much higher than is known, and that the state is simply not testing enough people.

West Bengal reported 11 deaths on SundayIt is highest in a single day, bringing the statewide death count to 33, but more importantly, it revealed that there were another 72 deaths from Coronavirus patients that it was not counting.

This was because a committee of experts appointed by the state government had verified that these 72 had pre-existing serious diseases and that their deaths could not be attributed mainly to the COVID-19 disease caused by the new coronavirus.

According to the state bulletin on Thursday, West Bengal had 572 “active” cases. Another 139 had recovered from the disease and were discharged. hospitals, while 33 people had died. This would give West Bengal a burden of 744 cases. But since the other 72 dead also tested positive, and cannot be included either in “active” cases or among those who have been discharged, it means that the state had at least 816 confirmed cases of new coronaviruses as of Thursday by the night.

The death of 105 people among 816 confirmed positive cases would give the state a case fatality rate (CFR) of 13 percent, which is well above any other state. Maharashtra, the most affected state in India, has so far recorded 459 deaths and has 10,498 cases. His CFR is only 4 percent. Similarly, Gujarat, with 214 deaths and 4,395 cases, has a CFR of less than 5.

The national CFR is only three percent. India added 1,978 new cases on Thursday to bring its number of confirmed cases to 34,949. The death toll had crossed at least 1,120.

A more precise definition of CFR used by scientists is the ratio of deaths to total number of infected people in the population, not only those who have been detected to have the infection. Since the entire population in a country like India can never be analyzed, any reliable estimate of the total number of infections generally arises only after the epidemic ends. But this number is always higher than the number of those who tested positive for the disease, and as such the actual CFR is much lower than just the ratio of confirmed dead and positive cases.

It is very possible that the current The number of cases in West Bengal is much higher than is known, and that the state is simply not testing enough people. So far, the state has tested only 16,525 samples. This is less than even Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir, two states with comparable, albeit less, workload than West Bengal.

But even if there are many more undetected infections in West Bengal, a nominal CFR of 13 percent is too high. In recent days, The Indian Express has reported that West Bengal is also one of the fastest growing states for Coronavirus infection right now. Their doubling time, the number of days it takes to double cases, is also the lowest in the country right now.

That is why scientists have begun to warn that, although the numbers reported in West Bengal are still quite small compared to states like Maharashtra and GujaratThe state was rapidly emerging as a potential danger zone in the next two weeks.

Elsewhere, Punjab recorded its biggest jump in a single day in the number of Coronavirus cases, thanks to a large group of pilgrims who returned from Nanded in Maharashtra and tested positive for the virus. More than 2,000 Sikh pilgrims in Nanded, home to one of the Sikhs most sacred shrines, were stranded last month after the closure was announced. Five days ago, arrangements were made for a large group to travel back to their home towns in Punjab on rented health buses. Since then many more have been brought to Punjab. However, when the tests were done upon arrival, many of them were found to be infected. As of Thursday night, 183 of these pilgrims tested positive, 149 of them in a single day. The results of several others were expected.

📣 Express explained Now it’s in Telegram. Click here to join our channel (@ieexplained) and stay updated with the latest news.

As a result, Punjab’s numbers jumped from 375 on Wednesday to 542 on Thursday. Surveillance has increased in both Punjab and Nanded as a result of infections found in this group, which has the potential to become yet another super-broadcast event, such as the Tabligh Jamaat meeting in New Delhi in mid-March.

📣 The Indian Express is now on Telegram. Click here to join our channel (@indianexpress) and stay updated with the latest headlines

For the latest news explained, download the Indian Express app.

© The Indian Express (P) Ltd