The 10-member panel, chaired by Professor M. Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad, says that no new closures should be imposed at the district or state level unless there is an imminent danger that healthcare facilities will be overwhelmed.
No new closures should be imposed at the district or state level to contain the spread of COVID-19 unless there is an imminent danger that healthcare facilities will be overwhelmed, according to a government-appointed committee chaired by Professor M Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad.
The committee has also stated that if all protocols are followed, the pandemic can be brought under control early next year with minimal active symptomatic infections by the end of February.
The 10-member panel that conducted a study on “Progression of the COVID-19 pandemic in India: Forecast and effects of the lockdown” has noted that without the lockdown, the pandemic would have hit India very strongly with a maximum charge of more than Rs 1.40 crore. cases arriving in June.
The committee has developed an evidence-based mathematical model for the progression of COVID-19. The ‘supermodel’ at the national level is based on several parameters, such as the time of closure, alternative closure scenarios, the impact of migrant workers returning home, and the future course of the pandemic, including the impact of not following. security protocols.
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“If we all follow these protocols, the pandemic can be brought under control early next year with minimal active symptomatic infections by the end of February. We do not yet know the specific climate disturbances of this pandemic (in general, viruses tend to be more active in colder environments) and the effects of possible future mutations in the virus. Therefore, existing personal security protocols must continue to full extent. Otherwise, we will see a sharp increase in infections. No new closures should be imposed in a district and throughout the state, unless there is an imminent danger that health care facilities will be overwhelmed, ”Vidyasagar said.
Festivals
The committee, which includes IIT and IISc professors as well as scientists, said upcoming festival and winter seasons may increase susceptibility to infection, but all activities can resume as long as proper safety protocols are followed.
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He also noted that the imposition of an early and complete lockdown carried the peak of cases into the future and also reduced the maximum load on the system.
“Without lockdown, the pandemic would have hit India very hard, with a peak burden of over 140 lakh of cases arriving in June. Given our lack of preparation at the time, the healthcare system would have been overwhelmed, leading to many additional deaths. If India had waited until May to impose the blockade, the maximum load of active cases would have been around 50 lakhs in June, ”the panel report said.
Peak
“Actually, the peak of active cases came in late September at around 10 lakhs. At the time, we were much better equipped to handle the pandemic in terms of diagnostics and vital equipment inventories. Without a lockdown, the number of deaths in India would have overwhelmed the system in a very short period of time and eventually 26 lakhs of deaths would have been crossed, ”he added.
Based on the time profiles of the analyzes performed for Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, the committee concluded that the impact of labor migration on the total number of infections in these states was minimal.
The committee also claimed that the imposition of various security protocols, such as the wearing of masks and social distancing, along with a comprehensive lockdown, has allowed India to perform better than many other countries.
“India has one sixth of the world’s population (one fifth not including China) and one sixth of the reported cases. Yet India accounts for only 10 percent of the world’s deaths, and its fatality rate of less than 2 percent is among the lowest in the world, “he said.
The committee recommended that existing personal safety protocols should continue to full measure, otherwise the country will see a sharp increase in infections.
“Avoiding congestion, especially in closed spaces, and taking special care of those over 65 and children is even more significant. Staff with comorbidities should be more cautious, ”he said.
The Department of Science and Technology had in June formed a committee comprised of eminent scientists and academics to develop a national supermodel for the progression of COVID-19.
The committee’s mandate was to create an evidence-based mathematical model for the pandemic after taking input from various groups working on the domain in the country and using it to analyze past events and future trajectories of the pandemic.
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