Updated: September 2, 2020 12:46:45 pm
Bus services resumed in Chennai on Tuesday, September 1, 2020 (Express Photo: Srinivas K)
Coronavirus cases in India: There is unusual consistency in the daily number of new cases of novel coronavirus infections reported by Tamil Nadu over the past month.
On 23 days in August, the state reported between 5,800 and 6,000 cases per day, leading to a nearly flat curve for the daily numbers in the month of August (see graph below).
Tamil Nadu Covid-19 Count in August
Other states that reported comparable figures, such as Uttar Pradesh or Karnataka or Bihar showed much larger fluctuations in their daily numbers. So did the country as a whole, which reported between 50,000 and 80,000 new cases a day during August.
Daily new cases in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka in August
This kind of consistency in the daily discovery of new cases was not observed even in Tamil Nadu in previous months. One of the reasons could be a similar consistency in the number of tests carried out. The other reason could be that the state’s labs have the capacity to process only that many tests each day. The numbers of daily tests have remained more or less constant in Tamil Nadu during the month of August, although not with the same kind of regularity that is observed in the number of positive cases.
Similar trends were seen in Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh in the month of May, when these states had also been reporting numbers that fell in very narrow ranges for an extended period. Compared to many other states, these three still have much smaller fluctuations in their daily numbers, but it is no longer what it was in the month of May.
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Daily Rise of Covid-19 in India.
Daily fluctuations, while a function of the number of tests performed, are also the result of an inherent randomness in the search for positive cases. The fluctuations would be smaller when the tests are aimed only at high-risk groups, and more if the people to be tested are randomly selected.
Top 10 states with the maximum load of Covid-19 cases.
After showing a drop on Monday, likely due to the usual decrease in the number of tests on Sunday, the daily number of new cases rose again on Tuesday. More than 78,000 new cases were discovered nationwide on Tuesday, in line with what was being detected for five days before Monday’s crash. The death count has passed 66,000 now.
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