Coronavirus | AIIMS director says cases likely to peak in June-July



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India registered 3,561 new cases of COVID-19 in the last 24 hours, for a total of 52,952. With 89 deaths, the count rose to 1,783 on Thursday.

Currently, the country has 35,902 active cases, and the director of the Indian Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), Randeep Guleria, states that according to data published by experts and following the current trend, cases are likely to increase in June- July.

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“While the predictions vary from May to August and continue to change depending on the parameters used based on the modeling data and how our cases are currently increasing, our peak of cases is likely to come in June and July. There are many variables for this and an exact prediction is not possible, “said Dr. Guleria.

According to data from the Union Ministry of Health on Thursday, 15,266 people have been cured so far with 1,084 patients cured in the last 24 hours. However, state health departments set the total number of cases at 54,299, of which 36,761 are active. The number of deaths increased to 1,832.

Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan said on Thursday that India was in better shape compared to other countries, with the death rate being 3.3% and the recovery rate 28.83% .

“Currently there are 4.8% of patients in the ICU, 1.1% in ventilators and 3.3% in oxygen in active cases. Testing capacity has increased in the country and is now at 95,000 tests per day with 327 government laboratories and 118 private laboratories. So far, 13,57,442 cumulative tests have been carried out for COVID-19, ”he said.

The Minister said that currently there were 180 districts with no new cases last week, 180 districts with no new cases in 7-13 days, 164 districts with no new cases in 14-20 days, and 136 districts with no new cases since the last 21 -28 days.

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“There are 13 States / Union Territories – Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Goa, Jharkhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir UT, Kerala, Ladakh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Odisha – have not reported any cases in the last 24 hours. While Daman and Diu, Sikkim, Nagaland and Lakshadweep have not reported a single case to date, “said Dr. Vardhan.

The Union Minister said India now had 130 hot spot districts, 284 non-critical districts and 319 unaffected districts.

So far, India had 821 dedicated COVID hospitals with 1.50,059 beds (1.32,219 isolation beds and 17,840 ICU beds) and 1,898 dedicated COVID health centers with 1.19,109 beds (1,09,286 isolation beds and 9,823 hospital beds). ICU) together with 7,569 quarantine centers.

“States should focus on more effective surveillance, contact monitoring and early diagnosis to maintain a low mortality rate,” said the minister. Surveillance for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) / influenza-like illness (ILI) should be intensified in unaffected districts and districts that have not reported cases in the past 14 days.

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“Such measures will help indicate the presence of any possible hidden infection at an early stage, aiding in its timely containment,” he added.

The Ministry of Health had also alerted states to be vigilant now with the increase in the number of migrant workers expected to arrive home.

“There needs to be a robust strategy and mechanism for testing, quarantining, and treating positive cases. Some states will also see immigrants from abroad as well. It is also necessary to implement an effective strategy for its tests, institutional quarantine and treatment, if necessary, “said the Minister.

Dr. Vardhan released the “Sanjivani” app and two AYUSH-based studies related to COVID-19 on Thursday. The Minister said that the COVID-19 administration had provided a powerful platform for the alliance between the Ministry of Health, the AYUSH Ministry and other scientific bodies.

Ayurveda research

Announcing the start of the two collaborative clinical research studies on Ayurveda interventions as Prophylaxis and as a supplement to standard care for COVID-19, the Minister said that these studies would restore the importance of the AYUSH pathways.

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“Ashwagandha for prophylaxis against SARS-COV-2 in the high-risk group and the efficacy of the Ayurveda formulation as a supplement to the” Standard of Care “for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19,” observed Dr Vardhan.

The study would be carried out through four research councils under the AYUSH Ministry and national institutes in 25 states and various state governments, covering approximately 5 lakh of population.

“The study result is expected to open up a new horizon to understand the preventive potential of AYUSH interventions during pandemics like COVID-19 through scientific evidence,” added the minister.

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The “Sanjivani” mobile application is intended to help generate data on the acceptance and use of AYUSH promotion activities and measures among the population and its impact on the prevention of COVID-19, the ministry said. “It is developed by the AYUSH Ministry in collaboration with other agencies and will reach a target of 50 lakh people,” he added.

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