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The World Health Organization’s special envoy for Covid-19, David Nabarro, said India has reported a relatively small number of coronavirus cases so far because it acted quickly. In an interview with NDTV, the health expert said the pandemic will peak in the country in late July before it is contained.
Nabarro said the coronavirus would not fade away simply after the restrictions were lifted. “When the closing [is lifted], there will be more cases, “he said.” But people should not be afraid. In the coming months, there will be an increase in [the number of] cases. “
The health expert, who is also a professor of global health at Imperial College London, warned that there will be “sporadic outbreaks” over time immediately after the shutdown ends. “In this regard, the outbreaks will be contained. Around the end of July, there will be a flat peak but it will improve. ”
India has managed to keep the virus “reasonably well located in specific locations” by imposing appropriate restrictions, Nabarro said. “Because India acted quickly, you have the situation under control in most environments,” he added. “It is difficult to control it in a dense configuration. You’re certainly slowing down the numbers. Its doubling rate is 11 days. ”
While the number of cases is high in states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi and Tamil Nadu, they are limited to urban areas, he said. “The number of cases in India is large. But compared to the population of India, it is not a very large number, “he added.
The director of the entire Indian Institute of Medical Sciences, Randeep Guleria, also said that India should prepare for a jump in cases, with models showing that the peak of infections can occur between June and July. However, according to him, the blockade does not seem to have led to a downward trend in the number of new cases.
“The main problem at the moment is that we are not seeing a downward trend,” said Guleria. mint. “After 40 days of a strict blockade, which was extended even further, the case count should have dropped. Many other countries have recorded a downward trend on their Covid-19 curve. ”
India’s cases rose by 3,320 to 59,662 on Saturday morning. The toll is now 1,981.
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