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The United States-based Center for Disease, Dynamics and Economic Policy (CDDEP) said in its April 20 report that total Covid-19 infections in India through September could reach Rs 111 million, even with a “hard closure, continuous social distancing and isolation of cases”. Even this number is the average of the expected range between 55-138 crore.
The range covers 50-150 percent of the point estimate. “The estimates are based on the latest available data, but given the novelty of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, these estimates still have some inherent uncertainty,” the report says.
The report, titled COVID-19 in India: potential impact of the embargo and other longer-term policies, notes that “emerging evidence suggests that mild or asymptomatic infections may represent a significant proportion of the infected population.”
Furthermore, he notes that many other countries such as China, Italy, the United States, the United Kingdom and Spain showed a sudden explosion in cases after a long period of few cases “indicating the possibility of many undetected cases.”
Total values projected for scenarios until September 2020
|
Base |
Total hospitalizations Total hospitalizations |
Outpatient symptomatic peak infections |
Total infections Total infections |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Base |
1,14,11,840 (57,05,919-1,71,17,759) |
19.01.97.331 (9.50.98.665-2.85,295,996) |
1,26,79,82,208 (63,39,91,104-1,38,00,04,385) |
|
Moderate blocking Moderate blocking |
1,10,19,226 (55,09,613-1,65,28,839) |
18,36,53,775 (9,18,26,887-27,54,80,662) |
1,22,43,58,499 (61,21,79,249-1,38,00,04,385) |
|
Hard closing Hard lockdown |
1,10,19,192 (55,09,596-1,65,28,788) |
18,36,53,200 (9,18,26,600-27,54,79,800) |
1,22,43,54,668 (61,21,77,334-1,38,00,04,385) |
|
Hard lock and continuous Social Dist Hard lock, continuous social distancing / case isolation ancing / Case isolation |
1,00,53,568 (50,26,783-1,50,80,351) |
16,75,59,460 (8,37,79,729-25,13,39,189) |
1,11,70,63,067 (55,85,31,533-1,38,00,04,385) |
It may be recalled that the same body had submitted a similar report on March 24, saying that India’s cases could be between 12 and 24 million rupees. CDDEP is part of Johns Hopkins University, which had dissociated from the first after it came out with its report.
The report calls for continued stringent restrictions. “The restrictions would have to be adjusted often to avoid a high spike in infections and hospitalizations,” he says, noting further that “frequent fragmented changes in blocking policy or fragmented policies (states vs. states and states vs. center) they can lead to political confusion and community fatigue to enforce the law. “
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