Rarely have the worlds of science, public health, economics, and the global balance of power intersected as they did in the days of Covid-19. And rarely has it relied so heavily on a single variable: developing a vaccine, or a set of vaccines, to provide immunity to all people around the world against Sars-CoV-2. The good news is that the worst may be behind us: the world is close to a major vaccine breakthrough. Pfizer and Moderna have achieved a high degree of efficacy (over 90%, much safer than initially assumed) using radical technologies that have the potential to address other critical illnesses. There are also other vaccines, many in the third stage of the trial, with a high chance of success. All of this means that early next year, the world will have a basket of vaccine options on the menu to choose from. Health Minister Harsh Vardhan said Thursday that a vaccine will be available in three to four months and that India has made arrangements to vaccinate 250-300 million people in the first phase.
But science is only one element of vaccine development. The politics of the vaccine, especially when the great powers seek to gain geopolitical advantage from it or nationalism prevails over the collective good, will matter. Procurement of vaccines, especially for India, will depend on the agreements it can reach both bilaterally and multilaterally, while taking advantage of its own domestic production capacity. Vaccine storage and distribution will depend on embarking on a comprehensive partnership using public infrastructure and collaboration with private sector actors; the fact that India has experience, both in its elections and in its vaccination programs, is helpful. The prioritization of the vaccine – not all citizens can be vaccinated simultaneously, given the limitations of immediate production, the required dosage scale and the logistical challenges involved – will require making difficult decisions; The Health Minister affirmed that frontline workers and the elderly will be prioritized, accordingly.
Most critically, the affordability of vaccines will be important: it would be smarter for the government to pay and provide free or highly subsidized rates to the population, since this will not only save lives, but will act as the most important stimulus. important to get the economy back on track. Tracking and building every element of the vaccine architecture should be the top governance priority over the next year.
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