71/243 assembly constituencies (CA) in Bihar will go to the polls on Wednesday in the first of the three-phase assembly elections. Here are some things that underscore the importance of this phase.
1) Strong holds and swing seats.
A look at the last two assembly elections in the regions that voted in the first phase shows that there were only 15 electoral districts in which the winning alliance was the same in 2010 and 2015. There was certainly a significant change in composition of the alliance between these two elections – Janata Dal (United), or JD (U), was part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in 2010 and left it in 2015, while Congress was part of the alliance led by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in 2015 rather than 2010. The JD (U) won in 17 constituencies in both 2010 and 2015, while the Bharatiya Janata Party won in five. The RJD won both elections in just three seats, and Congress in one. This year’s elections will test whether these parties are able to hold on to their strongholds while making the most of swinging seats.
Click here for full coverage of the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections
2) Impact of Covid-19 on electoral participation
This is the first state assembly election in India in the Covid-19 era, and it comes almost immediately after most restrictions on the gathering and movement of people across the country were lifted. But as the country continues to report new infections – about 46,000 new cases were reported on Sunday, 749 of them in Bihar – social distancing rules remain in place. Large crowds were seen in many of the recent election rallies in Bihar, but it remains to be seen whether the pandemic will have an impact on voter turnout. The turnout figure in Bihar has risen for at least four consecutive elections: there was an increase of 4.4 percentage points between the 2010 assembly and the 2019 Lok Sabha elections (through the 2014 Lok Sabha and elections of the 2015 assembly). But the CAs that went to the polls in the first phase always had the lowest turnout in these four elections compared to the electoral districts that went to the polls in the other two phases. For this reason, Wednesday’s turnout figures and projections for statewide turnout should be viewed in the context of historical trends.
3) Unique historical demographics
Bihar is a socioculturally diverse state and the Autonomous Communities that go to the polls in the first phase, as reported by HT on October 24, have the highest proportion of Programmed Castes and the lowest proportion of Muslim population compared to the electoral districts in the second. and third phases. Approximately 88% of the population of the electoral districts in the first phase lives in rural areas, almost representative of the total proportion of the rural population of the state. This is the lowest in the second phase and the highest in the third phase. The first phase is also dominated by Magadhi-speakers, who comprise about 27% of the population of the electoral districts that vote on Wednesday. Interestingly, the first phase includes areas that have seen violent conflicts over land on caste lines in the past, whose memories still play a role in driving political decisions in the state. Data from the South Asia Terrorism Portal shows that almost all regions where these caste massacres took place will go to the polls in the first phase.
4) How will the alliance policy work?
While the election results will only be released on November 10, the parties conduct their own assessments of how they have performed in each phase and refine their strategies accordingly. This is significant this time because the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) left the NDA, but ran the majority of its candidates against the JD (U) and other alliance parties, and not against the BJP. This phase will be the first to test whether the LJP is capable of spoiling the fortune of the JD (U) by cutting a part of its votes. The LJP is competing for 42 seats in the first phase; the BJP does not participate in any of these.
.
