In the overestimation and underestimation of ideas in Bihar, the message from the state, which sows a political narrative for the country in every election, is that “badlav” does not necessarily mean a change of government.
It may very well mean a realignment within the same political formation. Bihar’s message is loud and clear: caste remains the stronghold, but class can emerge simultaneously.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emerged as a unifier, rising above the caste and giving birth to a new class, one that received all the economic benefits of the Center even when the state abandoned it. It is here that Modi became the deciding factor in Bihar at a time when fighting against the government and rampant unemployment had all but shown Nitish Kumar the door.
The Prime Minister played every move on Bihar’s political chessboard. He was two movements ahead of his political counterparts and Kumar, his ally. If the women were angry at the ban and smuggling, they were willing to have faith in Modi as they did in 2019. If the migrants said that the CM abandoned theirs, they talked about how the Center assured them food on their plates.
The boost the BJP receives from Modi’s personal political capital has pushed the party beyond the finish line in several elections in recent years and once again proved to be the final push in what otherwise appeared to be a suspense.
A day after the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) retained power in the Bihar Assembly elections, Modi addressed party workers in Delhi. He said that the BJP was the only party that increased its seats, despite being in power for three terms: the BJP managed to get 19.5 percent of the vote in this election.
To corroborate Modi’s popularity over Kumar, consider this: 52 percent of respondents in the Lokniti-CSDS survey were satisfied with Kumar’s performance, while 61 percent said they were happy with Modi’s government’s work.
More than 20 lakh workers from across the country had returned home after spending more than a month locked up in hostile camps, far from their families. While this may seem like a tiny fraction compared to more than seven million voters in the state, the cascading effect of his electoral choice ended up influencing about six percent of the vote.
This class of voters was especially unhappy with Nitish Kumar for two reasons. One, their prime minister had deserted them by banning their entry to the state and most of them said they had not received any state aid after returning home. On the other hand, most of them had received money and food grains that the Center had promised them.
An entire village in Paliganj, near Patna, had immigrants working in Daman. One of them said: “It has been six months since we returned. There is no work. We had voted for Nitish Kumar in 2015, but this time, after what he did, we had to face hunger and extreme poverty.” us that electricity bills will be free, should we pay the bills or fill our stomachs? The chief ministers of Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh had called their people and what did our chief minister do? We spend 4,000-5,000 rupees out of our own pockets for home. The CM did nothing for us. “
“Was the pandemic only in Bihar? Other states did not have coronavirus
? We received food grains and money in our bank accounts that Modi ji had promised, “he added.
India had imposed a national blockade on March 24 with the aim of curbing the spread of coronavirus, leaving millions of migrant workers stranded.
An indication of sentiment among migrant workers towards Kumar can also be gleaned from a video that appeared on April 15. “We want to convey this to you that you talk to PM Modi and organize special buses to transport us to Bihar … open your ears and listen to us carefully … otherwise the ground under your feet will sink …” said a group of Bihar workers in a video posted on social media. They were stranded on the Badarpur border in Delhi.
A February 2020 study by the International Institute for Population Sciences concluded that more than half of households in Bihar are exposed to migration to more developed places in India and abroad. Added to this, the 64th National Survey by Sample indicated that 22 percent of the migrants are from CBO households and 19.3 percent belong to registered castes and tribes. This includes skilled immigrants.
Furthermore, for the first time, Kumar was at risk of being abandoned by his undivided constituency of women voters in the current Bihar elections, who could possibly have chosen to revert to traditional forms of electoral elections.
On April 1, 2016, Bihar was declared a dry state. The government led by JD (U) imposed a five-year prison sentence for first-time offenders. In 2018, the law was amended to introduce a fine for first-time offenders. Kumar’s big victory in 2015 was attributed to the support of women who felt approached by the JD (U) leader’s push for the ban. However, the factor probably worked against him this time.
A Muzaffarpur voter said: “The liquor is still sold illegally in the state. Those who sell it are more prosperous every day and those who consume go bankrupt. Alcohol is sold secretly and consumed in every home. Devastated. Police are part of this too. They allow alcohol to infiltrate borders. My son earns and spends all the money on drinking. There has been no prohibition of alcohol. “
In 2015, the Bihar elections recorded the highest female voter turnout since 1962. The percentage of women who had voted at that time was 60.48% compared to 53.32% of men. Experts had opined that women alone had caused a 7% swing in votes for Kumar.
This time, however, some women appear to have returned to their families to decide their electoral preference, as they also saw their husbands and children trapped in cities fighting hunger.
“I have received money in my bank account that the Center has promised me. I will go for whoever my son wants. Our family has 40 votes, we will all vote for a party, ”said the same woman.
But it was Modi’s social welfare programs aimed at women that saved Kumar’s day. Also in these elections, the participation of women was 59.69%, 5% more than that of men. The third phase, in which the NDA made substantial progress, saw 11% more participation by women. Several seats saw a participation of women of up to 70 percent.
The Center launched one of the largest cash transfer schemes to transfer money to Jan Dhan women’s accounts in April. Over 30 billion rupees were deposited into the women’s accounts. In addition to this, more than Rs 5,000 crore was deposited into linked LPG connections. In addition, 500 rupees were transferred to women’s accounts for three months.
The Center also increased MGNREGA’s wages to 202 rupees per day from 182 rupees, benefiting 13.62 million families. Rs 1,000 ex-gratia to Rs 3 million poor widows, poor disabled persons and poor elderly people.
On National Highway 47 near Darbhanga, there were several women who said the prime minister was feeding them. “Modi kiya hai, khana bhejwaya hai, har cheez kiya hai, pait bhara hai, jo dekh raha hai humko usko vote milega (Modi is feeding me, he has done everything for me, whoever takes care of us will get our votes).”
Not far away, a woman in her 60s was much more outspoken in her support. She said: “Modi gave me the pension, I have money in my account, I will give him 10 votes to win.”
Farmers’ interests were also taken care of and the Center deposited 2,000 rupees in the first week of April under the leadership of Prime Minister Kisan Yojana. This benefited farmers from Rs 8.7 million.
Kumar’s image of ‘sushasan babu’ also seems to have become outdated in the eyes of the young voter. Bihar’s demands have gone beyond the old electoral promise of the prime minister of bijli, paani aur sadak. The aspirations of a young Bihari have now been translated into economic needs.
The structure of Modi’s campaigns also showed the Prime Minister’s confidence in his political capital. In a carefully crafted tour schedule, the BJP deployed the PM more in the not so strong areas of the BJP-JD (U). Modi started his rallies in Sasaram followed by Motihari, Forbesganj, Saharsa, Bagah and Samastipur, areas where the NDA is weak. His speeches focused on his government helping Bihar CM to help develop the state and a promise of more.
This time, it was the BJP who proved to be the heavy hitter, managing to add 21 seats to his 2015 tally of 53, bringing it to 74. Meanwhile, the JD (U) saw their seat count eroded noticeably, having only managed to bag just 43 this time, a 28-seat drop from its 2015 figure.
The conventional wisdom that India votes differently in state and Lok Sabha polls has been challenged in Bihar with Modi emerging as that unifying force. Bihar’s message is that Modi could well be a deciding factor even in the Assembly elections.
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