Five of Bihar’s 15 districts, which go to the polls in the third and final phase of the assembly elections on Saturday, rank among the state’s top 10 Covid-19 districts in terms of the total number of cases.
Polls in 78 seats in Bihar’s 243-member legislative assembly will decide the fate of 1,204 candidates in contention for the final phase.
The Grand Alliance or Mahagathbandhan had won 54 of these 78 seats. The JD (U), which won 24 seats, was then part of the Grand Alliance, together with the RJD, which won 20, and Congress (10). The BJP, one of the main components of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), together with the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) and the Hindustani Awaam Morch (HAM), had won 19. Regional parties smaller ones had won the remaining five seats.
However, this time the dynamics of the polls have changed. The JD (U) is now part of the NDA. The LJP, which was with the NDA in 2015, has split and also opened a front against the JD (U). He has presented his candidates in the 115 seats that the JD (U) competes. Faced with dissensions, the JD (U) has had to expel 33 workers from the party for six years.
The RLSP is also outside the NDA. It has partnered with Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and Rajesh Ranjan’s Jan Adhikar Party (JAP) aka Pappu Yadav to form the Great Secular Democratic Front, turning it into a triangular contest in many districts.
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Purnia, Katihar, Araria and Kishanganj, who make up Seemanchal’s belt, have 24 of the 78 seats that will go to the polls on Saturday. Seemanchal has a substantial Muslim population that varies between 30% and 70% between constituencies. The Grand Alliance had won 16 seats, including five from JD (U), seven from Congress, and 4 from RJD. The BJP had won 6 in 2015. The CPI (ML) and AIMIM each won one.
The Kosi region, which comprises Supaul, Saharsa and Madhepura districts, has 13 of the 78 seats that go to the polls in the third phase. JD (U) had won eight, RJD four and BJP one in 2015.
The twin Champaran districts will see a contest in 12 of the 78 seats in the third phase. The BJP had won seven of them, JD (U) one, RJD two, Congress and one independent each in 2015. Of these, the BJP had won three in West Champaran, JD (U) one, Congress and Independent one each . At Purbi (east) Champaran, the BJP had won four and the RJD two.
In 2015, JD (U) had won nine of the 21 seats that went to the polls in the third phase in the Mithilanchal region comprising the districts of Darbhanga, Madhubani, Samastipur and Sitamarhi. The BJP won four, RJD six, and Congress two.
The saffron festival had gone blank in Madhubani, Samastipur, Madhepura and Saharsa in 2015.
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For the final phase, the JD (U) has put forward 24 candidates, BJP 19, RJD 20 and Congress 10, while other smaller regional parties have five candidates.
Yadav’s prominent faces in the fray include the daughter of veteran socialist leader Sharad Yadav, Suhasini of Bihariganj (from Congress), Nikhil Mandal (grandson of the former prime minister and chairman of the Mandal Commission’s recommendation report on job reservations, BP Mandal), contesting from the Madhepura seat in Ticket JD (U) and two ministers in the Nitish Kumar government, Narendra Narayan Yadav (Alamnagar) and Bijendra Prasa Yadav (Supaul).
The first two phases of the Bihar assembly polls were carried out on October 28 and November 3. The results of the survey are scheduled for November 10.
The Covid-19 factor
Of the districts going to the polls in the third phase, Muzaffarpur ranks second after Patna with a total Covid-19 case count of 9,938 and 42 deaths; Purnia fourth with 8,278 cases and 15 deaths; East Champaran fifth (7,756 cases and 43 deaths), Madhubani seventh (7,018 cases and 23 deaths); and Katihar tenth with 6,588 cases and 11 deaths.
Araria ranked 11th in the Covid case count (6,583 total cases and 18 deaths), Saharsa ranked 14th (6,024 and 8 deaths), West Champaran 15th (5,558 and 17 deaths), Supaul 17th (5,033) and 14 deaths), Vaishali, 18. (4,836 and 37 deaths), Samastipur-19th (4,748 and 34 deaths), Madhepura-22nd (4,365 and 12 deaths), Sitamarhi-24nd ((3,836 and 12 deaths), Kishanganj-25th (3,827 and 11 deaths), Darbhanga- 29 (3,560 and 31 deaths).
These districts, however, have a case positivity of less than 3 percent, according to state health officials who did not want to register. A positivity rate of less than 5 percent for more than two weeks is accepted by the World Health Organization standard. The positivity rate, which is the percentage of people who test positive for the virus among those who are tested, is a key indicator to measure transmission of the disease.
The participation of patients with Covid-19 has been low in the first two phases. The sources said that the voter turnout for Covid-19 patients was around 125 in the first phase, and that no infected person turned out to vote in many of the 38 districts.
Only two Covid-19 patients, one of whom was a candidate, turned out to vote in Patna, which leads with 36,866 cases and 222 deaths on Thursday.
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