The Lok Sabha Alliance
The BJP laid the groundwork for a successful alliance of Lok Sabha, which agreed to an equitable sharing of seats with the JD (U), despite the lower presence of the regional party in the Lower House. The BJP decided to give up its claim on 13 Lok Sabha seats that it had contested in 2014, shedding its “Big Brother” image. Five of these Lok Sabha seats had won in 2014. In 2019, both parties contested 17 seats and the remaining 6 were left for Ram Vilas Paswan led by the Lok Janshakti Party. While the BJP and the LJP won all the seats they contested, the JD (U) lost one to Congress.
Dynamics changed
Negotiations for seats within the NDA for the 2020 state elections may face obstacles created by the changed political dynamics. Political adversaries in 2015 are friends now. Several BJP leaders want Lok Sabha’s equality experiment to be repeated in the state elections and have openly expressed that JD (U) ditch its “Big Brother” label in the assembly elections.
With JD (U) and BJP competing together, the division of seats between the two dominant partners may not be an easy exercise. Despite the alliance, both sides would be fighting very hard to overcome and emerge as the largest party. While their common target is the Opposition Grand Alliance, there will also be an interesting fight between the two alliance partners.
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A look at the numbers
Let’s take a look at the results of the 2015 assembly elections to understand why negotiations for seats between NDA allies can lead to heartburn for both parties and their leaders. There are 51 assembly seats where the BJP and JD (U) were in direct competition. As they try to consolidate their achievements, both parties will not want to give up their claims on many of these seats.
BJP vs JD (U) in the 2015 assembly elections
The BJP and the JD (U) contested the 2015 elections as opponents and faced each other in several seats. However, in 51 seats they were the main contestants, that is, they were either the winners or the runners-up. A break of these 51 seats shows that JD (U) won 28 seats and was runner-up in 23 of them. The BJP, for its part, won 23 seats and was runner-up in 28 of them.
As the two sides enter into negotiations to share seats, they will want to keep the seats they won last time and also dispute most of the others in which they were second, as these are the ones that can be easily attacked to increase their account.
But this may not be an easy exercise for both of you.
Of the 51 seats that saw these two parties at the top in 2015, the margin victory was less than 5 percent in 15 seats and between 5 and 10 percent in 16 seats. In the remaining 20 seats, the margin of victory was over 10 percent.
An analysis of these margins yields some interesting statistics, which could cause problems during the negotiations.
In the category of less than 5 percent, the BJP won 8 seats and the JD (U) was victorious in 7 seats. While the winners would want to keep these seats, the losers would not easily sacrifice their claims considering the small margin of their defeat.
In the 5-10 percent category, the BJP won 10 seats and the JD (U) won 6 seats. The JD (U) would like to compete in some of the seats it lost in 2015 to improve its record this time. However, the BJP is unlikely to hold negotiations on the 10 seats it won.
The third category of seats, where the two sides achieved a complete victory, is unlikely to pose a major problem in the negotiations. The JD (U), with a victory in 15 of these 20 seats, has a clear advantage in this category.
Can the 2010 results be the benchmark for these 51 seats?
It would be interesting to see how the two sides manage to overcome these contradictions and settle for a friendly agreement to share seats. One possible way out would be to look at the results of the 2010 assembly elections, in which the two parties had fought together. The BJP won 91 seats and the JD (U) 115.
However, an analysis of the 51 seats in question shows that the JD (U) had won 33, while the BJP managed to win 15 seats. The remaining three seats were won by an Independent candidate, who joined the BJP in 2015, one by the LJP and one by the RJD.
Of the 33 seats won by the JD (U) in 2010, the party’s margin of victory exceeded 10% in 24 seats and between 5 and 10% in 6 seats. For the BJP, the margin of victory was more than 10 percent in 9 seats and between 5 and 10 percent in 4 seats.
Why doesn’t the BJP agree to be the “junior partner”?
However, the BJP is not likely to readily accept the 2010 benchmark as the party would argue that its popularity and position have changed significantly in the last 10 years.
The BJP may have won just 53 seats in the 2015 assembly elections, but its share of the vote was the highest, 24.42 percent, well above the JD (U) ‘s 16.83 percent. Compare this to the share of the votes of the two parties in 2010 and you realize why the BJP will not give in easily.
In the 2010 assembly elections, the BJP won 91 seats and obtained 16.49 percent of the vote, while the JD (U) won 115 seats and obtained 22.58 percent of the vote.
Thus we see that the BJP achieved significant gains in its voting share in 5 years, although it lost seats.
These numbers would play a crucial role when the parties sit down and decide to share seats. Both will have to deal with disgruntled leaders who may be asked to make sacrifices in the general interest of the alliance. Some of them may decide to compete as rebels or even switch sides to the opposition camp.
BJP vs JD (U) in the Lok Sabha elections
The BJP and JD (U) contested the 2009 elections and the 2019 Lok Sabha elections as allies. In 2014, Nitish Kumar of JD (U) had walked away from the National Democratic Alliance over the projection of Narendra Modi as a candidate for BJP prime minister. A look at the numbers for these two elections reinforces the rise of the BJP in the state over the past 10 years from junior partner in 2009 to senior partner in 2019.
The BJP contested 15 seats in 2009 and won 12 of them with a 13.93 percent vote share. In 2019, the party contested 17 seats and won them all with a vote share of 24.06 percent.
The JD (U), on the other hand, contested 25 seats in 2009 and won 15 with a 24.04 percent vote share. In 2019, the party contested 17 seats and won 16 of them with a vote share of 22.26 percent.
In 2014, when the BJP competed without JD (U), it won 22 seats with a 29.86% vote share, while JD (U) was only able to manage 2 seats with a 16.04% vote share.
Thus, we see that while the BJP has made considerable progress, the JD (U) has marginally lost when it comes to vote quota.
It also shows that the JD (U) performance alone was very poor. However, when she joined the BJP again in 2019, she saw a jump in her fortune.
As the two parties sit and deliberate on the seats, one thing that will be watched closely is: Will the JD (U) shed his label of “Big Brother” in the assembly elections and agree to give the BJP status? equal partner? As the numbers show, JD (U) seems to have few options.
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