NEW DELHI: Once again, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) of the Lok Sabha MP Chirag Paswan, led by the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), has played a role in Bihar politics. It may turn out to be a repeat of the post-2005 state poll scenario when the regional party, then led by his father, the Union Minister of Consumer Affairs Ramvilas Paswan, had tried to play the role of a kingmaker, but it finally failed.
LJP, which currently has a complicated relationship with the NDA led by the BJP in the center and the JD (U) in Bihar, has carved out a solo path in the upcoming state elections that are held in three phases.
The then supreme of the LJP, Ramvilas Pasan, had taken a similar course in 2005.
Regarded as a weather vane in Indian politics, Paswan Senior seems to have a nose for identifying the winning coalition. Branded by RJD Supreme Lalu Prasad as a “mausam vaigyanik” (scientist of the time), Paswan has been part of the government headed by six prime ministers: VP Singh, Deve Gowda, IK Gujral, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh in the past . and currently Narendra Modi.
Ramvilas Paswan, who became an MLA in Bihar for the first time in 1969 on the list of the Samyukta Socialist Party, moved to Lok Sabha thereafter. After being incarcerated for the entire Emergency period in 1975, he was first contested in the 1977 Lok Sabha election on the Janata Party ballot and created a world record for winning with the largest margin of votes.
He won all Lok Sabha elections from then until 2004. He lost in 2009 for the first time from his traditional Hajipur constituency to Janata Dal candidate and former Prime Minister Ram Sundar Das.
In 2000, Paswan parted ways with Janata Dal and formed the LJP.
In Bihar’s upcoming assembly elections in 2005, LJP was in the driver’s seat of state politics.
He contested state polls in alliance with Congress. However, the elections resulted in a hanging house as no party or coalition won a majority.
With 29 of the 243 seats that his party won, Ramvilas Paswan continued to affirm that the keys to the formation of the government were with him. This was the largest number of seats LJP won since the elections. Later, the number of seats LJP has won and the percentage of votes has decreased in each assembly election.
Meanwhile, Paswan refused to support the RJD led by Lalu Prasad or the NDA. Furthermore, he demanded that his party support only the party or coalition that installed a Muslim prime minister.
With no government formation in sight, then-Governor Buta Singh dissolved the assembly, recommended the imposition of the president’s government and the holding of new elections. The state went to new elections for the assembly in October of the same year.
Since then, the LJP’s political actions in the assembly elections have suffered a sharp decline.
From 29 seats in February 2005, the number of its seats was reduced to 10 in October, 3 in 2010 and 2 in the 2015 assembly elections.
The LJP vote share has also witnessed a downward trend similar to that of seats. It had obtained a 13 percent vote share in February 2005, which fell to 11 percent in October of the same year. The percentage of votes fell further to 7% in 2010 and 5% in the 2015 assembly elections.
Although his LJP is part of the BJP-led government in the center, he has decided to go alone in Bihar due to his competitive politics with the JD (U) government led by Prime Minister Nitish Kumar in the state.
Paswan and his son Chirag Paswan are crossed with JD (U) for inducing the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) of former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi [HAM(S)]. Both Paswans and Manjhi have a more or less common vote bank of Dalits, who make up 16 percent of the state’s population.
Until the last elections, Paswan was the champion leader of the Dalits in Bihar. But HAM (S) ate LJP’s vote bank ever since Manjhi rose to prominence after becoming CM in 2014.
As much as he wanted to, however, Paswan has not played the role of a kingmaker in Bihar politics since 2005. He hopes to regain that position in the next election.
LJP, which currently has a complicated relationship with the NDA led by the BJP in the center and the JD (U) in Bihar, has carved out a solo path in the upcoming state elections that are held in three phases.
The then supreme of the LJP, Ramvilas Pasan, had taken a similar course in 2005.
Regarded as a weather vane in Indian politics, Paswan Senior seems to have a nose for identifying the winning coalition. Branded by RJD Supreme Lalu Prasad as a “mausam vaigyanik” (scientist of the time), Paswan has been part of the government headed by six prime ministers: VP Singh, Deve Gowda, IK Gujral, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh in the past . and currently Narendra Modi.
Ramvilas Paswan, who became an MLA in Bihar for the first time in 1969 on the list of the Samyukta Socialist Party, moved to Lok Sabha thereafter. After being incarcerated for the entire Emergency period in 1975, he was first contested in the 1977 Lok Sabha election on the Janata Party ballot and created a world record for winning with the largest margin of votes.
He won all Lok Sabha elections from then until 2004. He lost in 2009 for the first time from his traditional Hajipur constituency to Janata Dal candidate and former Prime Minister Ram Sundar Das.
In 2000, Paswan parted ways with Janata Dal and formed the LJP.
In Bihar’s upcoming assembly elections in 2005, LJP was in the driver’s seat of state politics.
He contested state polls in alliance with Congress. However, the elections resulted in a hanging house as no party or coalition won a majority.
With 29 of the 243 seats that his party won, Ramvilas Paswan continued to affirm that the keys to the formation of the government were with him. This was the largest number of seats LJP won since the elections. Later, the number of seats LJP has won and the percentage of votes has decreased in each assembly election.
Meanwhile, Paswan refused to support the RJD led by Lalu Prasad or the NDA. Furthermore, he demanded that his party support only the party or coalition that installed a Muslim prime minister.
With no government formation in sight, then-Governor Buta Singh dissolved the assembly, recommended the imposition of the president’s government and the holding of new elections. The state went to new elections for the assembly in October of the same year.
Since then, the LJP’s political actions in the assembly elections have suffered a sharp decline.
From 29 seats in February 2005, the number of its seats was reduced to 10 in October, 3 in 2010 and 2 in the 2015 assembly elections.
The LJP vote share has also witnessed a downward trend similar to that of seats. It had obtained a 13 percent vote share in February 2005, which fell to 11 percent in October of the same year. The percentage of votes fell further to 7% in 2010 and 5% in the 2015 assembly elections.
Although his LJP is part of the BJP-led government in the center, he has decided to go alone in Bihar due to his competitive politics with the JD (U) government led by Prime Minister Nitish Kumar in the state.
Paswan and his son Chirag Paswan are crossed with JD (U) for inducing the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) of former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi [HAM(S)]. Both Paswans and Manjhi have a more or less common vote bank of Dalits, who make up 16 percent of the state’s population.
Until the last elections, Paswan was the champion leader of the Dalits in Bihar. But HAM (S) ate LJP’s vote bank ever since Manjhi rose to prominence after becoming CM in 2014.
As much as he wanted to, however, Paswan has not played the role of a kingmaker in Bihar politics since 2005. He hopes to regain that position in the next election.
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