NEW DELHI: A fractured opposition may work in favor of Bihar Prime Minister Nitish Kumar, but chances are he will face off in the upcoming October-November three-phase elections.
Nitish Kumar may eventually emerge victorious. However, the situations are not as favorable as during the 2015 assembly elections.
In the last elections, the JDU led by Nitish Kumar, imprisoned the RJD headed by Lalu Prasad and Congress had joined together to form the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance). This turned out to be a formidable alliance, which defeated, stopped and dusted off the electoral force of Prime Minister Narendra and Interior Minister Amit Shah.
But the current situation is not so favorable. This is why.
1. Anti-incumbencY
The 15-year tenure may weigh against Nitish Kumar. The charm and respect that the JDU president wielded in the first three terms have faded. In these 15 years there have been several negative events that have eroded his image and that of the JDU.
The aura of yesteryear has also decreased due to rivals’ attacks.
2. Internal struggles
Like other political parties, the JDU has also not been immune to internal disputes. However, infighting in the JDU, particularly during ticket distribution, has been the most acute, leading to rebellion. This can hurt the prospects for the party.
Three of JDU’s prominent Dalit faces, Bihar’s two-time Assembly Speaker Uday Narayan Chaudhary, former Minister Ramai Ram and former Minister Shyam Rajak, have defected to the RJD. While Chaudhary is racing against NDA ally President HAM (S) and former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi, Ram is racing from Bosaha in Muzaffarpur.
JDU has expelled 15 senior leaders, including the current Dumraon MLA Dadan Singh Yadav.
The rebellions taking place in the NDA allies BJP and JD (U) are likely to benefit the RJD.
3. LJP and Owaisi
There is no love lost between the LJP led by Chirag Paswan and the JDU. Although both LJP and JDU are BJP-led NDA partners in the Center, LJP has chosen not to be part of the alliance in Bihar.
Not only that, LJP has also announced that it will run candidates against almost all JDU candidates. This would only harm the interests of the NDA.
The JDU is competing in 122 of the 243 assembly seats. With the RJD also in the fray, a triangular contest between him and the LJP and the JDU would only help Lalu Prasad’s party.
Furthermore, the merger of Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM and former Union Minister Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP may affect JDU’s Muslim, Keori, and Kurmi vote bank.
The Mahagathbandhan had obtained the Muslim votes in 2015. Nitish Kumar has the votes of the Keoris and Kurmis. However, these vote banks can be divided in these elections.
Four. COVID-19
The alleged mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic can cost the JDU dearly. At one point, Bihar even led the count for the number of active cases of coronavirus disease.
The coronavirus disease pandemic exposed Bihar’s health infrastructure.
Several reported cases of COVID-19 patients denied admission to hospitals, doctors refused to treat patients due to a shortage of PPE equipment, patients died outside hospitals, several doctors they were absent from service and mismanagement in quarantine centers.
While COVID cases continued to rise, Bihar had one of the lowest tests per million in the country. There was also an immense shortage of testing facilities. In several cases, hospitals were left without beds and patients were turned away.
5. Migrant workers
The biggest crisis faced by states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal in the wake of COVID-19 was the displacement of migrant workers who had migrated to states like Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and even the south in search of work.
By some estimates, Bihar had 20 lakhs of migrant workers.
With the imposition of the blockade as of March 25, the country came to a complete halt. Construction work stopped. Industries, shops and even roadside dhabas where these migrant workers, both skilled and unskilled, were employed, were left without work.
With no income to make ends meet, the question of survival stared them in the face. Furthermore, landlords pressured migrant workers to leave their homes, as the latter were not in a position to pay the rent.
The central and state governments also found themselves deficient as they initially failed to organize modes of transportation for migrant workers. With no other option, migrant workers were forced to walk to their destination.
While the UP government arranged buses to transport workers from Delhi, Punjab and Haryana back home, the Bihar government lagged behind.
The Nitish Kumar government may now have to face the brunt of these migrant workers in elections.
6. Floods
In the immediate aftermath of the COVID crisis, the August floods were a double whammy for Nitish Kumar.
At least 40 people died and 81.68 lakh people were affected by the flooding in 1,317 130-block panchayats in 16 of the 38 districts, including the state capital, Patna, according to official reports.
Although floods are a recurring annual tragedy, the Nitish Kumar government has failed to overcome them in even 15 years, resulting in large numbers of human deaths and destruction of property and livestock.
Yadav’s scion, Tejashwi, alleged that the CM was missing due to floods wreaking havoc in various parts of the state.
7. Law and order
Due to rampant anarchy, the Bihar government under Lalu Prasad and his wife Rabri Devi had earned the epithet ‘Jungle Raj’ from the Supreme Court.
With the coming to power of the JDU-BJP government in 2005, that stigma was initially removed. However, Bihar saw the return of anarchy with the return of Mahagathbandhan in the 2015 elections.
Despite the BJP and JDU meeting again in 2017, the NDA government has been unable to control crime in the state.
The situation of law and order remains extremely alarming with several cases of kidnapping for ransom, extortion, murder, bank robberies and crimes against women.
The rape case at the Muzaffarpur shelter home, which came to light in 2017, still remains fresh in people’s minds. Up to 19 people, including former member of the military justice Brajesh Thakur, were convicted in the case. During the investigations, it was found that at least 34 girls in the shelter were drugged and raped.
Recently, a woman was gang-raped and her son died after being dumped into a canal.
By the way, the blame falls squarely on Nitish Kumar because he has the housing portfolio. Law and order remain a primary issue in elections.
8. Bad governance
The nickname ‘sushasan babu’ is attributed to Nitish Kumar for good governance. However, the opposition has made several allegations of poor governance against the NDA government in an attempt to tarnish Nitish’s ‘sushasan babu’ image.
Former Union Minister Yashwant Sinha is campaigning in Bihar and raising two major issues: lawlessness and corruption.
The Srijan scam of Rs 880 crore, involving the alleged fraudulent transfer of a large amount of government funds into a Bhagalpur-based NGO Srijan Mahila Sahyog Samiti between 2004 and 2014, had rocked the state.
Two newly built bridges have recently been razed. Last month, a bridge in Kishanganj was razed while awaiting its opening.
Another bridge, built at a cost of approximately Rs 263.50 crore in Gopalganj, met a similar fate in July. The mishap happened exactly one month after Nitish Kumar inaugurated it.
In his first term as CM, Nitish Kumar was praised for building roads in the state. However, several roads are now in a dilapidated state due to lack of maintenance.
These are the odds Nitish Kumar faces in the upcoming election.
Nitish Kumar may eventually emerge victorious. However, the situations are not as favorable as during the 2015 assembly elections.
In the last elections, the JDU led by Nitish Kumar, imprisoned the RJD headed by Lalu Prasad and Congress had joined together to form the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance). This turned out to be a formidable alliance, which defeated, stopped and dusted off the electoral force of Prime Minister Narendra and Interior Minister Amit Shah.
But the current situation is not so favorable. This is why.
1. Anti-incumbencY
The 15-year tenure may weigh against Nitish Kumar. The charm and respect that the JDU president wielded in the first three terms have faded. In these 15 years there have been several negative events that have eroded his image and that of the JDU.
The aura of yesteryear has also decreased due to rivals’ attacks.
2. Internal struggles
Like other political parties, the JDU has also not been immune to internal disputes. However, infighting in the JDU, particularly during ticket distribution, has been the most acute, leading to rebellion. This can hurt the prospects for the party.
Three of JDU’s prominent Dalit faces, Bihar’s two-time Assembly Speaker Uday Narayan Chaudhary, former Minister Ramai Ram and former Minister Shyam Rajak, have defected to the RJD. While Chaudhary is racing against NDA ally President HAM (S) and former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi, Ram is racing from Bosaha in Muzaffarpur.
JDU has expelled 15 senior leaders, including the current Dumraon MLA Dadan Singh Yadav.
The rebellions taking place in the NDA allies BJP and JD (U) are likely to benefit the RJD.
3. LJP and Owaisi
There is no love lost between the LJP led by Chirag Paswan and the JDU. Although both LJP and JDU are BJP-led NDA partners in the Center, LJP has chosen not to be part of the alliance in Bihar.
Not only that, LJP has also announced that it will run candidates against almost all JDU candidates. This would only harm the interests of the NDA.
The JDU is competing in 122 of the 243 assembly seats. With the RJD also in the fray, a triangular contest between him and the LJP and the JDU would only help Lalu Prasad’s party.
Furthermore, the merger of Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM and former Union Minister Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP may affect JDU’s Muslim, Keori, and Kurmi vote bank.
The Mahagathbandhan had obtained the Muslim votes in 2015. Nitish Kumar has the votes of the Keoris and Kurmis. However, these vote banks can be divided in these elections.
Four. COVID-19
The alleged mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic can cost the JDU dearly. At one point, Bihar even led the count for the number of active cases of coronavirus disease.
The coronavirus disease pandemic exposed Bihar’s health infrastructure.
Several reported cases of COVID-19 patients denied admission to hospitals, doctors refused to treat patients due to a shortage of PPE equipment, patients died outside hospitals, several doctors they were absent from service and mismanagement in quarantine centers.
While COVID cases continued to rise, Bihar had one of the lowest tests per million in the country. There was also an immense shortage of testing facilities. In several cases, hospitals were left without beds and patients were turned away.
5. Migrant workers
The biggest crisis faced by states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal in the wake of COVID-19 was the displacement of migrant workers who had migrated to states like Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and even the south in search of work.
By some estimates, Bihar had 20 lakhs of migrant workers.
With the imposition of the blockade as of March 25, the country came to a complete halt. Construction work stopped. Industries, shops and even roadside dhabas where these migrant workers, both skilled and unskilled, were employed, were left without work.
With no income to make ends meet, the question of survival stared them in the face. Furthermore, landlords pressured migrant workers to leave their homes, as the latter were not in a position to pay the rent.
The central and state governments also found themselves deficient as they initially failed to organize modes of transportation for migrant workers. With no other option, migrant workers were forced to walk to their destination.
While the UP government arranged buses to transport workers from Delhi, Punjab and Haryana back home, the Bihar government lagged behind.
The Nitish Kumar government may now have to face the brunt of these migrant workers in elections.
6. Floods
In the immediate aftermath of the COVID crisis, the August floods were a double whammy for Nitish Kumar.
At least 40 people died and 81.68 lakh people were affected by the flooding in 1,317 130-block panchayats in 16 of the 38 districts, including the state capital, Patna, according to official reports.
Although floods are a recurring annual tragedy, the Nitish Kumar government has failed to overcome them in even 15 years, resulting in large numbers of human deaths and destruction of property and livestock.
Yadav’s scion, Tejashwi, alleged that the CM was missing due to floods wreaking havoc in various parts of the state.
7. Law and order
Due to rampant anarchy, the Bihar government under Lalu Prasad and his wife Rabri Devi had earned the epithet ‘Jungle Raj’ from the Supreme Court.
With the coming to power of the JDU-BJP government in 2005, that stigma was initially removed. However, Bihar saw the return of anarchy with the return of Mahagathbandhan in the 2015 elections.
Despite the BJP and JDU meeting again in 2017, the NDA government has been unable to control crime in the state.
The situation of law and order remains extremely alarming with several cases of kidnapping for ransom, extortion, murder, bank robberies and crimes against women.
The rape case at the Muzaffarpur shelter home, which came to light in 2017, still remains fresh in people’s minds. Up to 19 people, including former member of the military justice Brajesh Thakur, were convicted in the case. During the investigations, it was found that at least 34 girls in the shelter were drugged and raped.
Recently, a woman was gang-raped and her son died after being dumped into a canal.
By the way, the blame falls squarely on Nitish Kumar because he has the housing portfolio. Law and order remain a primary issue in elections.
8. Bad governance
The nickname ‘sushasan babu’ is attributed to Nitish Kumar for good governance. However, the opposition has made several allegations of poor governance against the NDA government in an attempt to tarnish Nitish’s ‘sushasan babu’ image.
Former Union Minister Yashwant Sinha is campaigning in Bihar and raising two major issues: lawlessness and corruption.
The Srijan scam of Rs 880 crore, involving the alleged fraudulent transfer of a large amount of government funds into a Bhagalpur-based NGO Srijan Mahila Sahyog Samiti between 2004 and 2014, had rocked the state.
Two newly built bridges have recently been razed. Last month, a bridge in Kishanganj was razed while awaiting its opening.
Another bridge, built at a cost of approximately Rs 263.50 crore in Gopalganj, met a similar fate in July. The mishap happened exactly one month after Nitish Kumar inaugurated it.
In his first term as CM, Nitish Kumar was praised for building roads in the state. However, several roads are now in a dilapidated state due to lack of maintenance.
These are the odds Nitish Kumar faces in the upcoming election.
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