The victory of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) after what many believed was a vigorous campaign by Tejashwi Yadav of Rashtriya Janata Dal has once again reignited the debate over the ability, or lack thereof, of Congress to stop the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) juggernaut. While congressional performance is not the sole culprit for the NDA’s victory in Bihar, the party also performed poorly in other by-elections, winning only 12 of the 55 Assembly Congressional Districts (AC) it contested from the 59 BC who went to the polls. in 11 states. What ails the Congress party today?
1) Rahul’s aggression no longer inspires confidence …
On July 21, 2018, the Opposition filed a motion of censure against the government of Narendra Modi. There was never any doubt about the survival of the government. The strategy was intended to mark a political point. Rahul Gandhi, the then president of Congress, delivered what many believed to be a combative speech. He was seen as the natural leader of the Opposition. Congress’s fortunes peaked at the end of 2018. It snatched Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh from the BJP, and appeared poised to make impressive strides in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections compared to its 2014 performance. was going to be. Congress performed as poorly in 2019 as it did in 2014. Gandhi himself lost the seat to Amethi Lok Sabha, considered a stronghold of Congress. The continuing decline in his electoral performance in Amethi, from 2009 to 2019, raises questions about his popular appeal.
2) The national leadership of Congress is falling short …
One of the most counterintuitive results of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections was the sharp drop in congressional performance in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The results of the 2018 assembly elections, when extrapolated to the Lok Sabha seats, would have meant 12 seats in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and 10 seats in Chhattisgarh for the party. In the 2019 elections, Congress was only able to win two Lok Sabha seats in Chhattisgarh and one in Madhya Pradesh. He failed to win a single seat in Rajasthan. An analysis of results prior to 2019 by Gilles Verniers of Ashoka University found that in 80% of the cases, the party that won the state elections won the state in the next general election. In other words, Congress went against the trend by underperforming in these three states. The BJP has undoubtedly enjoyed an additional share of votes in the national elections in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. This is widely attributed to the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. There is a longing within Congress, and throughout the Opposition, for a leader who can match Modi’s appeal. This is the root of discouragement in the ranks of the opposition. The leadership of Congress has not risen to this challenge.
3) Central and state units are not synchronized …
At a time when the entire opposition, including Congress, is struggling to match Modi’s national appeal, the party’s national leadership could have adopted a more participatory operating style to attack the government, both inside and outside Parliament. This is becoming difficult due to a growing asymmetry in the support base of Congress and national leadership. In the 2019 elections, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Maharashtra contributed almost half (44.5%) of the total votes in Congress. The share of these states in the party’s total Lok Sabha MPs was only 5.8%. The 2019 scenario looks drastically different from 1984, when there was a near perfect correlation between the share of states in votes and seats in Congress. If the party’s large constituencies do not find a reflection of their concerns in the national strategy, discontent and discouragement will surely grow.
4) Reduction of footprint that limits the ability to adapt to personal ambitions …
Organizational leadership of a party is not just about leading inter-party competition. It also involves the delicate task of managing intra-party conflict, factionalism, and the personal ambition of leaders. Congress faces a major crisis on this front. In Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, the party lost state governments due to internal problems. In Rajasthan, a similar crisis broke out, but it has been avoided for now. The roots of these ruptures are the same: growing differences between leaders. The party leadership across India is not in a position to solve them as it has little to offer (such as a governorate, a central portfolio, or even a seat in Rajya Sabha). A good way to look at this is to track the decline in the number of Rajya Sabha MPs that Congress has sent to the Upper House in each decade.
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